Iraq is facing a significant challenge as its government is on the verge of incurring a net loss of approximately half a billion dollars due to a bumper wheat harvest and a substantial grain surplus. This surplus, arising from favorable rainfall and extensive government subsidies aimed at encouraging farmers in arid conditions, has resulted in a substantial oversupply of 1.5 million metric tons. Despite the financial strain caused by paying farmers and storing the surplus grain, the government is committed to keeping the grain within the country to support local mills, a decision that may lead to millers demanding lower selling prices as they can acquire the grain more cheaply on the global market. This situation highlights the complexities of balancing agricultural incentives with financial constraints and climate challenges, particularly in a country like Iraq, which faces severe food security issues due to climate change, conflict, and declining oil prices, further pressuring its already tight budget.