Lower US soybean production and stock forecasts will support prices

The USDA’s November report showed lower forecasts for US and global soybean production and stocks for the 2025/26 season, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance and limiting the potential for price declines, Sun Sirs reports. US soybean production is estimated at 4.253 billion bushels—48 million bushels below the September forecast and 2.8% below last year’s level. The lower production figures and stockpiles provide fundamental support for the market. The USDA data fell below the analyst consensus forecast (4.266 billion bushels), strengthening bullish sentiment. Reduced supply creates direct pressure for higher spot prices. The soybean oil market is experiencing a cost pass-through effect—rising raw material prices are increasing processing costs. With declining supply, robust demand from the food industry could lead to a shortage. According to USDA analysts, the soybean meal market is also receiving price support due to rising soybean processing costs. Declining global ...