Optimism marks forecasts for the sugarcane harvest in Brazil

Sugarcane

Vegetables

Brazil

Published Feb 7, 2023

Tridge summary

The first estimate by hEDGEpoint Global Markets for the 2023/2024 sugarcane harvest in the Center-South already showed some optimism in terms of recovery. The first number was around 580Mt of cane. However, our view has changed and we are now even more optimistic. Given the recent hot and rainy weather in the higher producing regions, we expect a strong recovery. Therefore, we revised our total sugarcane volume to 595Mt.

Original content

You must be wondering why Graph 02 shows 593Mt. While the precipitation has been extremely positive for the next harvest, it has hindered sugarcane crushing during 22/23. Looking at the TCH, the current harvest shows a possible recovery of 7.5%, reaching something around 73t/ha (Graph 01). This would lead us to around 552Mt of potential sugarcane crushing for the period. However, until the first half of January, around 542Mt of sugarcane were crushed, leaving only 3 mills in operation that use this raw material. In turn, the increase in precipitation increased the risk of leftovers (cane bisada). Even considering an early start for 23/24 (around the second half of March 2023 -- Graph 03), we believe that the region should crush just over 7Mt of sugarcane, reaching a maximum of something around 550Mt in 22 /23. This “extra” volume would then be incorporated into the 23/24 cane volume, raising the 593Mt to around 595Mt. Overall, we expect TCH to maintain the positive trend reaching ...

Source: NoticiasAgricolas