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Malaysian palm oil prices seen falling 23% in 2023 as output rises and Indonesia keeps supply tight

Updated Jan 23, 2023
Malaysian palm oil prices are set to fall for the first time in three years in 2023 amid a mild recovery in production, but will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels as Indonesian policies constrict global supplies, Reuters poll showed. Benchmark palm prices will average 3,800 ringgit a tonne in 2023, down 23% from last year’s record average of 4,910 ringgit, according to the median estimate of a poll of 18 analysts and those in the industry.
“The Russia-Ukraine conflict and economic affects of the pandemic will continue to impact the market in 2023. However, we feel that the severity of the volatility will be less as compared to the last year,” Malaysian Palm Oil Council marketing director Faisal Iqbal said. SLOW PRODUCTION Top producers Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to see a marginal rise in production just as global demand is forecast to rise, with China relaxing its COVID-19 restrictions and India increasing imports. China and India are the world’s biggest palm oil buyers. Production in Indonesia is forecast to rise 2.4% to 48 million tonnes this year, from an estimated 46.87 million tonnes last year. Malaysia’s production is seen at 19 million tonnes, up 3% from 18.45 million tonnes last year, as the government takes steps to alleviate a damaging labour shortage. Analysts said recent rainy weather will boost productivity in the second and third quarter, but lower fertilizer application in 2022 will limit any ...
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