Rural Bank raises wheat and canola export forecasts for Australia

For the year 2023/24, Australia is projected to make significant agricultural exports, including 20 million tonnes of wheat, 7.6 million tonnes of barley, and 5.8 million tonnes of canola. This surge in exports is attributed to various factors such as high demand, price increases, and concerns about the Russian harvest. However, there are concerns about potential complications in case of unforeseen events in the second half of 2024.

Wheat exports from Western Europe and the Black Sea region are expected to decrease by 20-25 million tons, leading to a potential rise in prices. The abolition of barley duties by China is anticipated to boost Australian barley exports to 7.6 million tons. However, the EU is expected to become the main global barley exporter in 2024/25, reducing its purchases of Australian canola.

In May, Australia experienced a 4% increase in rapeseed exports, with Pakistan becoming the largest buyer. The country also exported 1.1 million tonnes of pulses in the same period. The condition of canola crops in Canada is expected to increase competition for the new crop in Australia, but the decline in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the EU is expected to increase demand for the old crop.