Russia projects robust harvest and pressures wheat prices

The international wheat market is undergoing a period of readjustment. Russia, the leading global exporter of the commodity, projects a harvest of 88 million tons for the 2025/26 season, according to official Russian government data. Winter sowing is expected to reach 20 million hectares, signaling a strong presence in international trade in the coming months. This increase in Russian supply occurs alongside the growth in fertilizer export capacity—which is expected to exceed 65 million tons this year, with 70% destined for the external market. The advancement in seed self-sufficiency, which is expected to reach 70% by 2025, also strengthens the country's competitiveness in agribusiness. In Chicago, prices retreated to $5.06 per bushel, down from $5.14 the previous week. The absence of the USDA report, caused by the U.S. government shutdown, generated another factor of instability for international players. Russian competitiveness is reinforced by its ability to maintain low ...