Slaughter levels point to higher lamb and mutton prices ahead in Australia

LAMB prices regularly hit 1000c/kg in pre-Christmas saleyard sales this week, but within two years Global AgriTrends analyst Simon Quilty believes this will be the average price processors will be paying. Discounting surveys or analysts that estimate little change in the nation’s ewe or lamb flock – he believes years of high ewe slaughter will turn the supply-demand cycle in producers’ favour for mutton and lamb prices for the next 2-3 years. He is disappointed at the lack of current Australian Bureau of Statistics census-derived sheep and cattle and producer numbers, while producer surveys with small samples have led to extrapolations that tend to overestimate flock and herd size. And anecdotal evidence points to a significant deficit in lamb production, and higher ewe mortality this year, due to seasonal difficulties in some states – especially in western Victoria and south-east South Australia among pre-July lambing flocks, though less so among spring lambers. Mr Quilty said ...