Slaughter levels point to higher lamb and mutton prices ahead in Australia

Published 2024년 12월 6일

Tridge summary

Analyst Simon Quilty predicts a significant increase in lamb and mutton prices in Australia due to high ewe slaughter, which is expected to continue for the next 2-3 years, leading to a decrease in supply. He criticizes the lack of recent census data on sheep and cattle numbers and believes the mutton kill is a better indicator of flock size and liquidation. Quilty also believes there has been a significant exit from the sheep industry, which he believes will continue despite high prices. The article also discusses the impact of seasonal challenges and the migration of lamb production from New South Wales to Victoria.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

LAMB prices regularly hit 1000c/kg in pre-Christmas saleyard sales this week, but within two years Global AgriTrends analyst Simon Quilty believes this will be the average price processors will be paying. Discounting surveys or analysts that estimate little change in the nation’s ewe or lamb flock – he believes years of high ewe slaughter will turn the supply-demand cycle in producers’ favour for mutton and lamb prices for the next 2-3 years. He is disappointed at the lack of current Australian Bureau of Statistics census-derived sheep and cattle and producer numbers, while producer surveys with small samples have led to extrapolations that tend to overestimate flock and herd size. And anecdotal evidence points to a significant deficit in lamb production, and higher ewe mortality this year, due to seasonal difficulties in some states – especially in western Victoria and south-east South Australia among pre-July lambing flocks, though less so among spring lambers. Mr Quilty said ...

Source: Sheepcentral