US: How the soybean market behaved on February 27, 2023

The article provides an overview of the recent fluctuations in Chicago's grain prices, influenced by various factors including speculations about crop failures in Argentina and Brazil, and early US crop forecasts. The USDA Outlook Forum anticipates stable or slightly increased area for the 2023/24 crop, but expects higher productivity, potentially leading to a record harvest of 122.74 million tons. However, this is not meeting market expectations and is putting downward pressure on prices. Argentine crop conditions are deteriorating, with a significant increase in fair/poor conditions and a decrease in excellent/good conditions, leading to an expected reduction in production by 10 million tons. The delay in Brazil's harvest, the strongest in five years in some regions, is also impacting prices, as is the high dollar and increased freight costs. Climate forecasts predict high levels of precipitation, which could further delay the soybean harvest, and the main ports have run out of shipping quotas for March, potentially leading to a drop in demand and further price pressure. The value of the dollar and the timing of US interest rate hikes are also factors influencing the market.