Outlook for the global sugar market in the 2024/2025 harvest

Published May 8, 2024

Tridge summary

StoneX's report for the 2024/25 sugar market forecasts a surplus due to increased production in countries like Thailand and China, alongside a decline in Indian production. Despite this, the surplus is expected to be smaller than the previous year. The surge in China's demand is likely to keep it among the top sugar importers. The report also mentions the impact of the ethanol market on sugar production in India and the contribution of La Niña to Thailand's productivity. The NY#11 index's decrease reflects the anticipated surplus.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

StoneX's latest report on global sugar balance estimates for 2024/25 (October to September) predicts a surplus between supply and demand for the next cycle. The report highlights the recovery of important crops, such as Thailand and Mexico, and the continued growth of other markets such as China and the European Union. The NY#11 index, the sugar futures contract in New York, entered a downward trend from April onwards, falling 281 points throughout the month, reflecting a market situation that indicates a surplus. Furthermore, the start of the new sugarcane harvest in the Center-South of Brazil, with expectations of high production, reinforces this bearish trend, despite the "neutral" position of speculators in relation to the market. The report notes that, despite the surplus forecast for 2024/25, the estimate is not expected to repeat the high volume observed in 2023/24. In 2023/24, Brazil had a record harvest, contributing to a surplus of 3.86 million tons of sugar in the ...
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