Tilapia Falls Below Cost Line, US Inventories High, Retailers Hesitant to Place Orders

In Week 29 (July 14-20), processing plants in South China with 500-800g specifications purchased at below CNY 8.0/kg, indicating that tilapia pond-head prices have fallen below the average break-even point. U.S. frozen tilapia wholesale prices have remained stable in recent weeks, with importers holding sufficient inventory to buffer market fluctuations, and most buyers have chosen to wait or missed the current purchasing opportunity.

A processing enterprise manager in Guangdong told UCN: "There is still no good news from the U.S. market, and we have adjusted our marketing strategy to minimize their risks."

Price differences across the tilapia market's upstream and downstream more reflect demand-side issues, with U.S. buyers (especially retailers) remaining cautious. Due to tariff impacts, end-terminal prices have significantly increased, with sales slowing across all channels, with retail sales showing a more notable decline.

Due to panic buying in previous months, U.S. cold storage facilities are operating at high capacity, with spot inventory circulation slowing down. Importers are barely maintaining daily procurement, with cash flow velocity decelerating and the likelihood of large-scale inventory replacement being low.

Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers are actively marketing to the U.S. market, proposing more attractive sales conditions. Some exporters have suggested "delivered duty paid" (DDP) trade proposals, promising to maintain prices even if tariffs change, attempting to inject confidence into a hesitant market.

In China's farming sector, Guangdong and Hainan have strengthened environmental compliance supervision of tilapia farming this year. All export raw materials must be officially registered, and farms must install additional wastewater treatment facilities, increasing fixed costs for farmers. Under current low-price conditions, these costs further compress farmers' profit margins.