Warren/Angelo: end of meat surcharge should help price per arroba, but with limited impact on IPCA

By Francisco Carlos de Assis São Paulo, 21/11/2025 - For the cattle producer, the announcement of the withdrawal of the 40% U.S. tariffs on a series of Brazilian products, including beef, is timely news because it should help reduce the downward pressure on the price of the arroba of beef, predicts Andréa Angelo, inflation strategist at Warren Investimentos. However, she does not believe in a significant impact on consumer inflation. The price of beef had been falling since China resorted to anti-dumping measures in the futures market. But the same China, two weeks ago, resumed the import of chicken from Brazil after suspending the embargo imposed in May due to an avian flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul. The large-scale withdrawal of chicken meat from the country through shipments to the Chinese market adds to the U.S. tariffs on beef as a driver of the rise in the arroba of protein. "With the end of the 40% taxation, we expect a scenario of greater firmness for prices until the ...