What are the prospects for the global wheat market in the coming months?

Published 2024년 4월 11일

Tridge summary

Heading into the 2024/25 season, the global wheat market is poised for several changes, with a forecasted 3% decrease in trade volume to 201.2 million tonnes for MY 2023/24, influenced by lower export prices and varied regional demand. Despite a slight uptick in global harvest projections to 799 million tonnes for 2024, weather challenges such as excessive humidity in northern Europe and drought in North Africa could affect production levels. The EU, Russia, and Ukraine are expected to see a decline in wheat production, while the United States and India are on track for increases. Global consumption is projected to rise to 804 million tonnes, driven by a slight increase in food use, though demand for animal feed is expected to drop. Trade volumes are anticipated to decrease by 2% to 196.4 million tonnes, with Russia remaining the top exporter despite potential declines in Black Sea origin volumes. This complex scenario of weather impacts, production adjustments, and shifting demand introduces a layer of uncertainty that is likely to influence wheat prices and availability until the 2024 harvest season begins.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Can wheat stay this cheap in 2024/25? This is the question that all players in the grain value chain are asking themselves! Here is an overview of the wheat market situation so that everyone can form their own opinion. Global wheat trade for MY 2023/24 is forecast at 201.2 million tonnes, 3% below the previous year's peak, but lower global export prices are boosting Currently demand from some buyers in Europe and Asia. Sustained demand for competitively priced, lower quality wheat from Ukraine pushes import projections for the EU to 10.7 Mt, 1.7 Mt below the previous season’s record. Real-time shipping data also shows continued and robust flows from the Black Sea region to Turkey and Pakistan, amounting to 9.3 Mt in the former case and 3 Mt in the latter. Based on trade reported to date, the import outlook for Indonesia and Uzbekistan is also improved, but those for China and Tunisia are revised downwards. Increased harvest estimates for Southern Hemisphere exporters have inflated ...

Source: TerreNet