Wheat planting and exports grow amid the war in Ukraine

Published Jan 31, 2024

Tridge summary

Ukrainian wheat production is projected to surpass 20M mt due to an increase in planting area and favorable soil moisture levels, despite a decrease in snow cover. The risk of winterkill remains low due to warmer weather forecasts. Grain exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports reached 4.8M tonnes in December, exceeding volumes achieved through the UN-promoted grain corridor. However, the Red Sea crisis could potentially impact future exports. Despite a potentially smaller harvest, the situation is not seen as a bullish fundamental as the harvest is still relatively good in the post-war context and high exports have been a bearish force for futures contracts.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Planting data released until the end of November pointed to an increase in planted area, while soil moisture remains close to the 5-year average. Snow cover has decreased recently, but forecasts point to a low risk of winterkill. Ukrainian exports have also somewhat surprised the market. In December, Ukraine shipped 4.8M tonnes of food, mainly grains, from its Black Sea ports, surpassing for the first time the volumes achieved through the UN-promoted grain corridor. However, the escalation of tensions in the Red Sea could change this scenario. In recent reports we have seen that, despite some risks, the main producers in the northern hemisphere have generally brought several bearish fundamentals to the wheat futures markets. In this report, we will address another one of these cases: Ukraine. “Looking at various indicators of the Ukrainian harvest, everything points to another harvest of more than 20M mt. Starting with the planted area, the data available so far leads us to ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio