FAO: 2022-23 world cereal trade forecast downward again

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its forecast for the global cereal production in 2022, slightly increasing it to 2,777 million tonnes, which is 1.2% lower than the previous year. The minor adjustment is attributed to increased feed grain production forecasts in Australia and Ukraine, but a slight decrease in global rice production is expected due to lower official forecasts for the Indonesian crop.

Global cereal consumption for the 2022-2023 season is projected at 2,779 million tonnes, showing a decline of 0.7% from the 2021-2022 season. The decrease is primarily due to lower-than-expected consumption of corn, especially in the European Union. Despite this, the forecast for world wheat consumption has been slightly increased.

The FAO also anticipates an increase in global rice stocks by 5.8 million tons to 850 million tons at the end of the 2023 cropping season, indicating a satisfactory stock-to-use ratio of 29.7%. However, global feed grain inventories are predicted to be down 4.3% from early season levels, largely due to increased corn inventories in major exporting countries.

While global rice stocks are expected to be sufficient to meet global consumption for 4.4 months, carryover stock forecasts are not as favorable in other regions, such as Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa, due to lower production and expected decreases in imports.