Australia's Short and Mid-Term Almond Production Prospects

Published 2023년 9월 7일

The pollination of Australian almond orchards occurred without significant disruptions despite the recurrence of varroa mites late in the pollination season. With normal pollination and barring any extreme weather events, early projections suggest a 2024 crop of around 188,736 mt. Australian almond production is projected to hit 200,000 mt potentially by 2026. However, the industry's rapid expansion has slowed recently due to concerns surrounding water availability, climate change impacts, declining bee populations, and questions about almond production's profitability.

Australian almond trees are currently blossoming, and the prospects look brighter than last year. Assuming the weather stays consistent throughout the season, the almond harvest in Feb-24 might set new records.

The pollination period started normally, but another outbreak of varroa mites in the latter stages put the industry on high alert. Varroa mites feed on the blood of bees, making them weak and susceptible to other diseases, leading to significant mortality rates. Australia’s strict biosecurity controls mandate the eradication of any infected beehives as well as all hives within a 10-kilometer (km) radius. Beehives within 25 km of detection fall into the “purple zone,” and the movement of these hives is restricted.

During pollination in 2022, varroa mite detections in New South Wales (NSW) and the subsequent restriction on the movement of beehives led to shortages of beehives in Victoria during pollination. Victoria produces more than half of Australia’s almonds, and the pollinator shortage contributed to the poor crop harvested in Feb-23. During the current pollination season, varroa mites were only detected after beehives were already positioned in the almond orchards. Although the situation is still developing, pollination largely proceeded as usual. The biggest concern now is that outbreaks have spread from NSW to Victoria, and a national-level outbreak is possible.

Without major disruptions to pollination, the 2024 crop is bound to be a record, barring any extreme weather conditions over the next five months. Australia’s almond areas have been expanding rapidly, increasing by an average of 3,442 hectares (ha) annually over the last ten years. According to the Almond Board of Australia (ABA), the area under almonds that were already bearing in 2022 was 43,776 ha (these areas were harvested in 2023). An estimated 2,320 ha more came into production in 2023, meaning approximately 46,105 ha will be harvested in 2024. Average yields over the last five years were 4.09 metric tons (mt) per ha. Based on average yields, the 2024 crop could reach 188,736 mt. Assuming newly planted areas produce four years after planting, a baseline projection can be made up to 2026 when production could top 200,000 mt.

*The x-axis indicates the year of production, and the "Bearing Area" values are for the preceding year.

Source: Tridge, ABA

Over the long term, the Australian almond industry will face significant challenges. The low price of almonds domestically and globally, in combination with high input costs, has made almond production much less favorable. Water management and irrigation access, perennial issues in Australia, stand out prominently among these hurdles. Securing consistent irrigation water is a persistent concern, specifically, in Northwestern Victoria, which houses 56% of Australia's almond cultivation areas. Irregular rainfall and extreme weather events attributed to climate change also threaten the industry. Another consideration is the effect varroa mites will have on the Australian bee population.

At present, authorities are aiming for the total eradication of varroa mites, leading to the culling of many beehives. Mite control and management instead of their outright elimination is an alternative approach being considered. Whatever the option, commercial bee populations are expected to drop significantly in the short term and might take several years to repopulate. This could impact almond pollination in the coming years. The new areas added to almond production have already shown a sharp decline in recent years. The expansion is expected to decelerate even further over the short term until the industry can address some of the challenges.