Chilean Citrus Set to Recover in 2022/23 Amid Low Global Availability

Published 2022년 12월 22일

Chilean citrus production is forecasted to bounce back for the 2022/23 campaign on good weather and expected better yields. Chilean lemons, oranges, and mandarins are all projected to recover after an unfortunate 2021/22 campaign characterized by lower yields due to winter frost. As a result, Chilean citrus exports are also projected to recover shipment volumes before the frost. The recovery of the Chilean citrus industry comes when global citrus production is down in the main producing regions due to soaring input costs and logistics challenges.

According to the latest Chilean Citrus Annual USDA report, Chile is forecasted to increase its citrus output in all the main citrus products. After a complicated year of lower yields due to frosts in the Valparaíso, Metropolitana, and O’Higgins regions, Chilean citrus production is estimated to bounce back in the new 2022/23 season.

The report estimates that lemon production will increase by 30% YoY to 200 thousand mt, assuming normal yields and no unexpected climatic events impacting production. The increase would mean a bounce back to the exact same production volume as the 2020/21 season, after decreasing last season to 140 thousand mt.

For oranges, production will increase by 22% to 200 thousand mt as production also recovers from the previous campaign, and better yields are expected. In 2021/22, orange production fell by 18% to 164 thousand mt due to extremely cold temperatures in the Metropolitana region. However, besides better yields, there is also a 0.7% YoY increase in the orange area planted that has supported the growth. Furthermore, fresh orange domestic consumption is also estimated to increase to 98 thousand mt from the 71 thousand mt of the previous campaign.

Mandarin production, including clementines and tangerines, will also rise by 40% YoY and total 237 thousand mt, following an increase in area planted and assuming standard yields with no adverse climatic events that could hinder production. In this case, the production increase is more significant than the 26% decrease experienced in mandarins over the previous season.

As a consequence of recovery production, citrus export volumes have also been projected to increase substantially for the 2022/23 season. Lemon exports are forecast to have an impressive 65% YoY increase to 100 thousand mt. For oranges, the USDA project exports to rise to 105 thousand mt, a 22% YoY increase. In the case of mandarins, the report projects that exports will increase by 39% totaling 200 thousand mt.

Assuming weather conditions remain normal and citrus yields in Chile go back to normal. In that case, the Chilean citrus industry will recover successfully in a critical moment for the global citrus supply. According to Francois Rotteleur, Tridge’s Distribution Manager in France, citrus prices in Europe have remained high all through 2022, driven by scarcity of citrus. “Globally, orange and tangerine prices are 15–20% higher in 2022 than in 2021. High prices are due to a scarcity of citrus fruits in Spain, Italy, and the main European producers, along with a reduction in supply from the producing countries in the Mediterranean region,” he explained.

Northern hemisphere citrus production is projected to drop by 13% this season to 26 million mt. If this forecast is accurate, the 2022/23 season’s crop will be one of the smallest of the last seasons. Furthermore, Egypt's orange production is down this year, and Morocco will have significantly fewer mandarins than the previous year.

The global citrus situation could benefit Chilean exports to enhance their presence in the main importing markets, but most importantly, to be able to increase export prices and generate a substantial increase in value as well.