Significant Drop Forecasted for the Northern Hemisphere Citrus Production

Published Dec 13, 2022

Northern hemisphere citrus production is projected to drop by 13% this season to 26 million mt. The estimation comprehends Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and the US production, all leading global citrus producers. Due to the hot and dry summer in most countries, this year’s crop is one of the smallest of the last seasons in the hemisphere. However, for other northern hemisphere citrus producers, production is estimated to increase from last year and most likely will be benefited from the supply gap left by others.

According to the World Citrus Organization (WCO) forecast based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and the US, Northern Hemisphere citrus production is set to fall by 13% to 26 million tonnes in the 2022/23 season. If the estimation is accurate, the 2022/23 season’s crop will be one of the smallest of the last seasons, mainly due to climatic issues in leading export countries.

However, according to the WCO, despite the production decrease in the Northern Hemisphere, the global citrus market will continue to develop further as citrus fruits are still some of the leading fruits on the global market. In the EU, Italy and Spain are set to experience decreases in citrus production following rising energy costs, which is substantially affecting production costs, transportation, and utility bills. As a result, citrus production is forecasted to experience a 15% and a 21% decrease in Spain and Italy, respectively. However, in Greece, which will also be affected by rising energy costs, there is an 11% YoY increase expected.

In the Southern part of the Mediterranean, production is projected to go down in Morocco by 33%, 27% in Turkey, and 17% in Tunisia. In the case of Morocco, the combination of several factors leads to a difficult season for Moroccan citrus. First, the country is going through a seasonal cycle from last year’s very intensive harvest with large volumes. Another reason for the decrease in volume is the increase in input costs, as the price of fertilizer has tripled this year. Another factor would be the climate situation where hot and dry wind was experienced during the blooming period and damaged a significant amount of the crop.

In Egypt, however, citrus volumes are forecasted to increase by 8% YoY, driven by lower costs, which have been subsidized by the government, including labor and the abundance of water in the country. Also, Israel is forecasted to remain stable in citrus production as it's expected not to be affected by unfavorable weather as the other south Mediterranean region.

In the US according to the USDA, citrus crop production is expected to decrease by 5% in the 2022/23 season compared to last season. The US has been gradually reducing its citrus production in the primary producing states like Florida and California due to the appearance of the citrus greening bacteria. Furthermore, for the next season, the arrival of twin hurricanes has battered further the Florida growing region. As a result, this season's production of oranges in Florida is forecast to be down 36% to 18 million boxes and would make the 2022/23 season one of the lowest since the ’40s. Addtionally, other citrus crops in the US are also forecast to be down, with grapefruit production, tangerines, and tangelos also decreasing considerably.

In terms of citrus products, the WCO forecast also states that orange production is projected to decrease by almost 12% to a total of 14 million mt. A more significant decrease is also expected for other citrus categories in the Northern Hemisphere, as in the case of grapefruits, which are projected to decrease by 17% to 770 thousand mt. In addition, lemon production is also expected to reduce by 16% to 4.35 million mt, and soft citrus will also decrease by 13% to 7.2 million mt.