EU Olive Oil Prices Keep Steady Over the Season

This season, European olive oil prices have been steady owing to good fundamentals. Production in 2020-21 rose from 1.91 million mt to 2.05 million mt. Inventories in 2020-21 were also ample at 0.61 million mt. These have kept prices in most top producing countries in the European Union steady.

Spanish extra virgin olive oil is trading at €333 per 100kg against €335 per 100kg in January 2022. A look at the price evolution from October 2021 when the season started shows some price elevation from €317 per 100kg but the difference is marginal.

Similarly, the Italian extra olive oil price index has only gained (€19) Since January to finish at 431 per 100kg in week 22 of 2022. The price at the start of the season in October 2021 was 419 per 100kg only up €12 over the period. Italian prices ended last season at 419 per 100kg after edging up in January 2021.

Also, extra olive oil prices in Greece have been steadily gaining a tiny 5% since October last year. The spot was selling on May 22 at €338 per 100kg versus €323 per 100kg in October. A YoY comparison of prices shows a tiny €10 rise. The expectation is that the price mat stays around that level till the end of the season.

A parallel situation exists in Portugal. Extra virgin olive oil has traded around the €350 price average. In January 2022, they were going for €325 per 100kg before edging up to €360 per 100kg in March. Since then, they have come down to €340 per 100kg in May-22. Prices this year have been relatively higher than year-ago quotations, but they continue to move within a small price range.

Looking at the start of the season to date, Croatian extra olive prices have seen some strength. The price at the start of October 2021 was €583 per 100kg against €643 per 100kg, a €60 gain. The €643 price in May 2022 is also a €133 increase YoY but lower than the 5-year price average. The direction of Croatian prices looks unpredictable as the price trend so far this season has been against the trend of the previous season.

Now into the second half of the season, prices may continue to be kept stable under the current fundamentals which are forecasted to be strong. With Production in the European Union expected to rebound coupled with increases in other producing countries, market sources expect sentiments to be mildly bearish. That said, pressure from other edible oils (rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and palm oil) may be the one factor that may support prices.