Global Table Grape Production Projected to Increase in 2024

A recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates promising developments in table grape production for the 2023/24 season. The global production is projected to surge by 490 thousand metric tons (mt), reaching a total of 28.4 million metric tons (mmt). This increase is primarily attributed to improved supplies from China, which are expected to offset losses in the European Union (EU). While exports are anticipated to remain stable at 3.7 mmt, shifts in regional production dynamics are influencing the global grape market.

China's Remarkable Growth

China is set to play a pivotal role in the surge, with a projected production increase of 750 thousand mt, reaching 13.5 mmt. This growth is attributed to favorable growing conditions, improved production practices, and significant investments in various aspects of grape cultivation. Not only is the fruit quality improving, but the extended supply season is enabling production in almost all provinces. Consequently, Chinese exports are expected to rise by 23% to 480 thousand mt, with a focus on Asian markets, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Conversely, Chinese imports are forecasted to decline for the fifth consecutive year, dropping over 25% to 130 thousand mt.

Regional Dynamics: India, Türkiye, and the European Union

India is poised to see a slight improvement in production, with a forecasted increase of 100 thousand mt to reach 3 mmt. Favorable growing conditions and increased yield are expected to boost exports, especially to the EU, by 13 thousand mt to 295 thousand mt.

On the other hand, Türkiye faces challenges, with production expected to drop by 320 thousand mt to reach 1.9 mmt due to crop losses in the Aegean region. Delayed rains caused significant outbreaks of downy mildew disease, resulting in lower supplies and a corresponding decrease in exports by 47 thousand mt to 180 thousand mt.

The EU anticipates a decline in production by 248 thousand mt to 1.3 mmt, primarily due to heavy losses in Italy resulting from excessive rainfall in May and June. Despite this setback, the overall quality of EU grapes is expected to be excellent, driven by high temperatures in July. Persistent high freight and transportation costs will likely impact exports, which are forecasted to decrease by 23 thousand mt to 150 thousand mt. However, table grape imports to the EU are expected to rise by 57 thousand mt to 630 thousand mt, driven by reduced output and increased demand.

Table Grapes Production 2022/2023

Source: USDA

North and South American Contributions

In the United States (US), table grape production is forecasted to rise by 67 thousand mt to 878 thousand mt, with a slight decline in exports to 210 thousand mt. Imports are expected to increase marginally to 760 thousand mt, compensating for reduced exportable supplies.

Chile, a significant player in the global market, is projected to rebound from last year's adverse weather, with production increasing by 89 thousand mt to 745 thousand mt. This surge in supplies is expected to boost exports by 68 thousand mt to 565 thousand mt, with the US being Chile's largest market, accounting for nearly half of total exports.

Peru is expected to maintain its position as the world's largest exporter, with a steady production of 776 thousand mt. South Africa is poised for recovery, with production expected to rise by 24 thousand mt to 342 thousand mt. Australia, experiencing a record production of 220 thousand mt, marks a complete recovery to pre-COVID levels.

Despite challenges such as drought restrictions affecting shipping volumes, the grape industry is showing resilience, with the Panama Canal Authority's recent announcement to increase daily transits providing a positive outlook for the global table grape market in 2024.

Global Exports to Remain Unchanged

Global table grape exports are expected to remain nearly unchanged at 3.7 mmt, with greater shipments coming from Chile and China, making up for losses from Türkiye and the US. Shipping volumes were severely impacted by drought restrictions imposed on the Panama Canal in May, which saw daily transits and vessel capacity reduced.

Despite challenges such as drought restrictions affecting shipping volumes, the grape industry is showing resilience, with the Panama Canal Authority's recent announcement to increase daily transits providing a positive outlook for the global table grape market in 2024.