Global Tea Exports and Future Projections for 2022-2032

Bulk Green Tea

Japan

Published Mar 7, 2024

From 2012 to 2022, global tea exports increased by a modest 0.5%, reaching 1.84 mmt in 2022. The growth was due to a robust 2.0% annual increase in green tea exports, while black tea exports experienced a 0.9% YoY rise in 2022, notably from Kenya and India, but Sri Lanka faced a significant 12.5% drop. Despite a 1.7% increase in global green tea exports in 2022, 2023 data indicated stagnation due to geopolitical tensions and economic challenges disrupting international trade. Pakistan’s and Russia’s tea imports declined, while the US experienced a 4.3% increase. Black tea exports are forecasted to reach 1.81 mmt by 2032, with an annual growth rate of 1.2%, led by major exporting nations such as Kenya. Green tea exports are projected to grow robustly by 3.5%, reaching 574 thousand mt by 2032, primarily driven by China, maintaining dominance in the market.

Global Tea Exports from 2012 to 2022 and Future Challenges

Global tea exports experienced a modest annual increase of 0.5% over the last decade (2012-2022), reaching 1.84 million metric tons (mmt) in 2022. This growth was driven by a robust annual increase of 2.0% in green tea exports and a more subdued 0.2% annual increase in black tea exports. In 2022, black tea exports saw a 0.9% year-on-year (YoY) rise, primarily attributed to increased shipments from Kenya and India, the first and third largest exporters of black tea. However, Sri Lanka, the second-largest black tea supplier, experienced a significant 12.5% drop in 2022, the lowest since 1996, due to reduced tea production and an ongoing economic crisis.

Global green tea exports increased by 1.7% in 2022, led by growing shipments from China, contributing to over 75% of global green tea exports. According to preliminary 2023 data, global tea exports are expected to remain stagnant despite a resumption in shipments from Sri Lanka. Geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and a global economic slowdown have disrupted international trade, decreasing tea shipments to key importing markets. Notably, tea imports by Pakistan and Russia, the top two importers, declined by 1.6% and 6.5% in 2022, respectively, while the United States (US), the third-largest importer, saw a 4.3% increase in 2022.

Forecasted Trends in Global Black and Green Tea Exports from 2022 to 2032

The global tea export forecast for black tea is anticipated to reach 1.81 mmt by 2032, exhibiting an annual growth rate of 1.2% compared to the previous decade's 0.2%. This growth is expected across major exporting nations, with Kenya leading at an average annual growth rate of 1.4%, followed by India and Sri Lanka with rates of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. Over the next decade (2022-2032), India expects to surpass Sri Lanka as the second-largest exporter of black tea, as Sri Lanka's exports rebound at a slower pace from current setbacks.

Green tea exports are projected to grow at a robust annual growth rate of 3.5%, reaching 574 thousand metric tons (mt) by 2032. This growth is primarily driven by increasing sales from China and Vietnam. China expects to maintain dominance in the export market, contributing 75% of global green tea shipments, with an export volume of 429.91 thousand mt. Vietnam follows with 84.40 thousand mt, Japan with 14.32 thousand mt, and Indonesia with 6.24 thousand mt. Positive growth rates are forecasted for all major green tea exporters over the medium term.