Overview of Wheat Production and Exports in North America in 2023

Published 2023년 11월 15일

Wheat production in the United States has climbed 34% YoY due to record yields and greater harvested area. In contrast, droughts have caused a scarcity of Hard Red Winter (HRW) supplies. US exports are forecasted to rise by 10 million bushels to 145 million bushels in 2023/24, the highest amount since 2013/14. Conversely, drought is anticipated to reduce Canadian wheat production by 13.1% YoY to 29.8 million tons in 2023. The value of wheat exports from the US has increased significantly since 2020, reaching USD 8.5 billion in 2022. Wheat exports in Canada climbed 19.72% YoY to USD 7.9 billion in 2022, owing to increased domestic supply. Tridge expects the export of grain commodities in North America to fall in the short term, affecting domestic consumption and price.

This year's Soft Red Winter (SRW) United States production is up 34% YoY due to a record yield and a 21% increase in harvested area. SRW variety has benefited from several years of ideal weather and abundant harvests, with production reaching its highest level in nine years. This contrasts US Hard Red Winter (HRW) supplies, which have historically been scarce following consecutive droughts. Soft Red Winter (SRW) exports from the United States are expected to increase by 10 million bushels in 2023/24 to 145 million bushels, the highest level since 2013/14. In Canada, wheat production is expected to fall 13.1% YoY to 29.8 million tons in 2023 due to significant drought across the prairie provinces. While average wheat yields in 2023/24 are lower than last year, dryness for most of the growing season in the prairie provinces has resulted in good quality. Insufficient domestic supplies, resulting from drought and high food costs, led Canada to import a record USD 269 million in US wheat products and flour in MY 2022/23.

* 2023 data are for H1-23Source: Tridge TDS

The value of US wheat exports showed substantial growth, with a 16.97% year-over-year surge to USD 8.5 billion in 2022. However, in H1-23, it plummeted 65.79% YoY to USD 3.37 billion, mainly due to a tight supply caused by drought and high prices of US wheat on the global market. Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines were significant destinations for US wheat in 2022 and H1-23.

In Canada, the total export value of wheat increased by 19.72% YoY up to USD 7.9 billion in 2022, driven by expanded domestic supply. On the other hand, in H1-23, Canadian exports remained at more even levels, with a slight increase in wheat export value at USD 4.83 billion. China, Japan, and the US were the leading destinations for Canadian wheat in 2022, while in H1-23, Algeria and Indonesia replaced the first two countries.

Despite the increase in SRW wheat forecasts, Tridge's short-term outlook for grain commodities in North America shows a drop in production and supply, impacting domestic consumption and exports. Another indicator for declining exports is slow sales so far, supplementing overall low dynamics in trade. This could result in higher grain prices in the short run. However, the situation may change depending on the weather since more precise outcomes are defined in spring 2024, demand variations, and policy changes. Tridge continues to follow up on global grain sector happenings with weekly updates.