In W44 in the wheat landscape, the European Commission (EC) reduced the forecast for the European Union's (EU) wheat exports in the 2023/24 season to 31 million metric tons (mmt), down from the previous forecast of 32 mmt. This is attributed to a 22% year-on-year (YoY) decline in grain deliveries from the EU due to stiff competition from Russia. As a result, the EC has increased its estimate for final wheat stocks in the 2023/24 season to 19.1 mmt, up from the previous expectation of 17.8 mmt, though it remains slightly lower than the stocks for the 2022/23 season, which were 19.3 mmt.
China is expected to import record quantities of wheat in 2023 due to damage to its crops caused by rain and concerns about dry weather in wheat-exporting countries. As the world's largest wheat producer and consumer, China purchased around 2 mmt of new-crop Australian wheat in Oct-23, with deliveries starting in Dec-23. Additionally, they have reserved approximately 2.5 mmt of French wheat for shipment between Dec-23 and Mar-24, considered unusually high for this time of year.
The United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has lowered Argentina’s wheat production forecast in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 2 mmt to 14.5 mmt due to widespread dry conditions. However, it is still 2 mmt higher than the country's 2022/23 crop. Argentina, the largest wheat producer and exporter in South America, has been facing three years of dry conditions. FAS has also reduced the wheat exports forecast to 10 mmt, including flour products, which is 1.5 mmt lower than the previous estimate. Nonetheless, this would still be a substantial increase from the 3.9 mmt exported in 2022/23, although lower than the 16 mmt exported in 2021/22.
Saudi Arabia maintains a high wheat production forecast in the 2023/24 season, similar to the previous season when production nearly doubled to 1.18 mmt. This expectation is due to the government offering a high procurement price of USD 466/mt to farmers. As long as these government procurement prices remain elevated, it is projected that domestic wheat production will continue to be around 1.2 mmt.
Russia's grain exports in Oct-23 totaled 5.35 mmt, representing a 15% YoY decrease. Wheat exports, in particular, also dropped by 15% YoY to 4.7 mmt. Notably, there has been a decline in shipments to major buyers of Russian wheat. Exports to Türkiye decreased by 38.5% YoY to 695 thousand metric tons (mt), while deliveries to Egypt dropped by 53% YoY to 506 thousand mt, and shipments to Bangladesh decreased by 23.5% YoY to 392 thousand mt. However, there was an increase in wheat exports to Iran in Oct-23, which ranks fourth in the list of wheat buying countries.
Furthermore, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture is proposing a temporary ban on the export of durum wheat, according to a draft government resolution. This ban is set to be in effect for six months, from December 1, 2023 to May 31, 2024. However, the ban will not impact the supply of durum wheat to Belarus, international humanitarian aid to foreign countries based on decisions of the Russian government, international intergovernmental agreements, international transit shipments that start and end outside Russia's territory, or the movement of this wheat within Russia through foreign state territories.
In Tajikistan, the harvest of crops, including cotton and grain, has been delayed due to climatic conditions. As of October 20, 925 thousand metric tons (mt) of grain were harvested, including 705 thousand mt of wheat. The forecast for grain production in Tajikistan for 2023 is 1.67 mmt, including 975 thousand mt of wheat.