Poland’s cunning pear exports sneaks them into the top 10

Published 2021년 9월 21일

Poland’s pear exports have more than doubled over the last 5 years, to 98,462 MT in 2020. Their apple exports on the other hand were 35% less than 5 years ago, at 657,310 MT in 2020. While at first glance it seems that there is a switch from apples to pears, the connection is quite coincidental. Despite pear exports soaring, production is not increasing. A closer look reveals pears from other European countries are sneaking through Poland into Belarus and Russia. The drop in apple exports is not directly connected and is mostly due to a bumper European apple crop.

Not a simple as it appears

The Polish apple industry overshadows the pear industry, with crop estimates of 4.2 million MT of apples, and 70,000 MT of pears to be harvested in 2021. When export figures are scanned, it is clear pear exports are increasing rapidly, by an average of 22% annually, over the last 5 years, to nearly reach 100,000 MT. Apple exports on the other hand have dropped to 657,310 MT in 2020, from more than 1 million MT 5 years ago. However, this is not because producers are switching to pears. In fact, Polish pear imports are behind the greater exports, and demand for apples has been subdued by a large European crop of 11.7 million MT.

In a recent article by EastFruit, titled Polish growers are switching from apples to pears, Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is quoted as saying “Over the past five years, Poland has been increasing its exports of pears at an average rate of 23% per year, or almost 13 thousand tons, and reduced the exports of apples by 4% or 34 thousand tons per year... Thus, the shift in trends in favor of pears looks quite obvious.”

However, in truth pear production in Poland has been fairly stagnant over the past few years, and exports are not a result of growers switching to pears, but rather because Poland is acting as an intermediary.

Pear exports are increasing, but not production

According to estimates at the 2021 World Apple and Pear Association (Prognosfruit estimates), the Polish pear crop was 65,000 MT in 2020 and will be 70,000 MT in 2021. There is little deviation from the 5 year average of 70,000 MT. The cultivated area of pear trees was 7,605 ha in 2019, 18% less than 5 years ago, according to the recent Polish agricultural census. So if anything, pear production is trending lower. Pear exports in 2020 were nearly 100,000 MT, while the crop was only 65,000 tons. Exports for the first 5 months of 2021 are already 58,880 MT, but the total crop for 2021 is forecast at only 70,000 MT. To achieve these export volumes, Poland has increased their imports substantially. Poland imported a massive 48,781 MT in 2020. This is 25% more than 5 years ago.

Source: FAO, ITC Trade Map, *Prognosfruit forecast for 2021

Pears entering Poland

Poland’s annual pear crop of around 70,000MT ranks them as the world’s 24th largest pear producer. They are dwarfed by crops of 400,000 MT in South Africa (ranked 6th), 370,000 MT in the Netherlands (ranked 7th), 350,000 MT in Spain (ranked 8th), 340,000 MT in Belgium (ranked 9th), and even 160,000 MT in Portugal (ranked 16th). Yet, Poland has jumped to the 9th spot in terms of global pear exporters. This is as a result of the large number of pears entering Poland from the above-mentioned countries, only to be exported again.

Source: ITC Trade Map

Poland exports to Belarus, Belarus exports to Russia

In 2020, 88% of Polish pears that were exported went to Belarus, and 78% of all Belarusian pear imports came from Poland. Belarus is a major market for pears, importing more than 100,000 MT per year. While many of these pears get consumed by Belarusians, several make their way to the Russian border. Recently Belarus has been sourcing their pears from Poland, where in the past they sourced their pears directly from origin countries, which suggests there could be some geopolitical factors at play.

Source: ITC Trade Map

Belarus acts as an entry point for pears making their way into the Russian Federation. Belarusian pear imports are almost exactly correlated to their exports to Russia. For example, in 2015, Belarus bought 175,908 tons, with large quantities coming from South Africa, China, and Serbia. In that year, they also exported a record 158,46 MT, with 99.3% of it going to Russia.

In 2020 Poland imported nearly 50,000 MT, with 60% coming from the Netherlands. Their exports were nearly 100,000 MT, with 88% going to Belarus. Belarus was the final destination for many of these pears, but also exported more than 30,000 MT, 99% of it going to Russia. This means over the past few years, pears have been making their way from other European countries, mostly the Netherlands, into Poland. Poland adds some of their homegrown pears. Then from Poland, they are exported to Belarus. Belarus is the final destination for some of these pears but for others the gateway into Russia.