Production Woes Cause 5.6% YoY Decline in Global Coffee Exports

Published 2023년 7월 26일

Combined production setbacks in the major coffee-growing countries have triggered a downward trend in global coffee bean exports. According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports in May were down 0.6% to 9.56 million bags, from 9.61 million in the previous year. As a result, cumulative coffee exports for MY 2022/23 continue to decrease steadily, down 5.6% to 74.59 million bags, compared to 79.01 million bags at this stage last marketing year. Global coffee exports are anticipated to experience a further decline in the upcoming month, primarily due to the ongoing reduction in production volumes from Colombia. However, there is some positive news as the rate of decline is expected to slow down, thanks to improved harvesting activities in Brazil during the past few weeks.

Coffee production in Colombia, the world's leading producer of mild-washed Arabica, has faced significant challenges over the past three years due to adverse weather conditions caused by a prolonged La Niña event. The heavy rainfall has impacted crop yields and hindered harvesting efforts, resulting in a decline in coffee production. Similarly, in Brazil, a key coffee-producing nation, low early season volumes and unfavorable weather conditions have also contributed to lower coffee bean exports. The combined production setbacks in these major coffee-growing countries have triggered a downward trend in global coffee bean exports.

According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports in May were down 0.6% to 9.56 million bags, from 9.61 million in the previous year. As a result, cumulative coffee exports for MY 2022/23 continue to decrease steadily, down 5.6% to 74.59 million bags, compared to 79.01 million bags at this stage last marketing year.

Source: Tridge, ICO

During the first eight months of MY 2022/23, exports of all Arabica varieties, including Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals, fell by 10.73% YoY to 44.45 million bags, compared to 49.79 million bags in MY 2021/22. Exports of the Brazilian Naturals category also fell by 14.8% MoM to 2.65 million bags in May, resulting in cumulative exports of 23.4 million bags for MY 2022/23, down 9.8% from 25.93 million bags in MY 2021/22. Not surprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the decrease in Brazilian coffee exports, which also fell by 16.2% YoY to 2.12 million bags.

The Colombian Milds witnessed a 7.2% month-on-month (MoM) drop in exports in May to 0.91 million bags. The drop is driven primarily by losses in Colombia, the leading origin of this coffee group, whose exports were down 10.3% in May. This is the eleventh consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of this group of coffee from Oct-22 to May-23 were down 14.1%, at 7.28 million bags, as compared with 8.48 million bags in the first eight months of the previous coffee year.

In May, shipments of the Other Milds category increased by 8.7% to 2.57 million bags from 2.36 million in MY 2021/22. This represents two consecutive months of positive growth since March 2022, halting twelve consecutive months of negative growth. Despite this rebound, the cumulative volume of exports continued to fall, down 10.5% to 13.77 million bags in the first eight months of MY 2022/23 from 15.38 million bags in MY 2021/22.

Global exports of Robusta coffee amounted to 3.65 million bags in May, up 6.8% MoM, bringing the shipments for MY 2022/23 to 30.13 million bags, from 29.22 million bags in MY 2021/22.

Global coffee exports are anticipated to experience a further decline in the upcoming month, primarily due to the ongoing reduction in production volumes from Colombia. However, there is some positive news as the rate of decline is expected to slow down, thanks to improved harvesting activities in Brazil during the past few weeks. Significant progress was made in July, with some regions already harvesting about half of their coffee production. Additionally, the Robusta coffee harvesting activities have practically concluded in most growing regions. This improvement in harvesting activities in Brazil is likely to have a stabilizing effect on global coffee exports, offering a ray of hope for the coffee industry amid the challenges posed by production declines in other regions.