Spanish Pork Prices at Record Highs on European Production Decline

Published Apr 24, 2023

Spanish pig carcass prices are experiencing their highest monthly average levels on record. The main reason behind the sharp increase in prices is lower production in Spain and in Europe overall. The Spanish pig herd has been affected by a highly virulent strain of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe’s herds have been affected by African swine fever cases.

Midway through April 2023, Spanish pig carcass prices are experiencing their highest monthly average levels on record. Class S carcasses stand at EUR 259/100 kg, while Class R carcasses stand at EUR 247/100 kg. These levels represent year-over-year (YoY) increases of 21% and 23%, respectively. Meanwhile, Class E carcass prices stood at a record EUR 254/100 kg in March, up 38% YoY,, and could set another record once official prices for April are released.

Source: Tridge and European Commission

The main reason behind the sharp increase in prices is lower production in Spain and in Europe overall. In 2022, total EU-27 pork production totaled 22.08 million mt, down 5.6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Spanish pork production totaled 5.07 million mt, down 2.2% YoY. Spain is the largest pig meat producer in Europe and the largest pig meat exporter in the world.

The Spanish pig herd, in particular, has been affected by a highly virulent strain of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), called “Rosalia”, which has dwindled domestic production. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe’s herds have been affected by African swine fever (ASF) cases.

Just last week, on April 14, 2023, a new case of ASF in pigs was reported in western Poland (lower Silesia). Earlier in the year many cases of the disease were reported in wild boars near the area. Wild boars have also been infecting Germany’s pig herd with ASF.

In addition to disease, lower exports to China have also been affecting European production numbers. Since 2022, China has been demanding less pig meat from abroad, after it has successfully rebuilt its domestic herd following great production losses derived from several bouts of swine fever which started in 2018. The lower demand from China has caused several farms in Europe to close.

According to the USDA, pork production in the EU 27 is expected to fall by 3.6% this 2023. The decline is attributed to lower slaughter, which will more than offset a predicted increase in the average weight, resulting from greater feed availability. The fall in pig meat supply is expected to more than offset a decline in domestic consumption, which is set to be 1.5%. This widening deficit is the reason why prices have reached record highs and why they will likely remain above 2022 levels during the year.