W1 Shrimp Update: Vietnam Shrimp Reverses Trend with 24% YoY Surge, Thailand Seeks Growth Amid Global Uncertainties

Vietnam's Shrimp Exports Show Resurgence in November Despite Annual Decline

In Nov-23, Vietnam's shrimp exports demonstrated signs of resilience, registering a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 24% to reach USD 51 million, a reversal from the overall trend of the year, which witnessed a 5% YoY decline. Despite the challenges faced by the shrimp industry, particularly in the first eleven months of 2023 when total exports amounted to USD 3.1 billion, reflecting a 23% YoY decline, the United States (US) emerged as a shining beacon. The country remained the largest single export market for Vietnamese shrimp, with Nov-23 exports amounting to USD 640 million, despite a 17% YoY decrease. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union (EU), and mainland China and Hong Kong experienced declines of 3% YoY and 8% YoY, reaching USD 36 million and USD 569 million, respectively.

Looking ahead, Vietnam's Ministry of Fisheries has set an export revenue target of USD 9.5 billion for 2024, with an estimated total output of 9.22 million metric tons (mmt). Despite an expected 8.3% decrease in wild catch to 3.54 mmt, aquaculture production is anticipated to rise by 5% to 5.68 mmt. The ministry emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust production chain, enhancing competitiveness, and promoting green production for the sustainable development of the fisheries sector. The projected fishery production for 2024 is approximately 9.269 mmt, marking a 2% YoY increase, with wild capture accounting for 3.86 mmt and aquaculture production totaling 5.408 mmt. The annual export revenue target of USD 9.2 billion in 2024, comprising 92% of the USD 10 billion plan for 2023, is anchored by key products, including shrimp with an export value of USD 3.45 billion.

Thai Exports Poised for Growth as Global Competition Faces Scrutiny

In 2023, Thailand's shrimp production is anticipated to mirror the 2022 figure at 280 thousand metric tons (mt), with exports estimated at around 120 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.5 billion. This estimate surpasses the initial 2023 exports projection with 144 thousand mt and USD 1.6 billion. However, despite the volume increase, earnings have experienced a decline. The Thai Shrimp Association attributes this decrease in exports to low shrimp prices and escalating production costs. The economic challenges are exacerbated by some farmers suspending breeding activities due to high costs and the impact of diseases, along with unpredictable weather conditions, further contributing to the dip in farmed shrimp production.

Regional distribution highlights the southern region of Thailand contributing 33% to the total production, followed by the eastern region at 25%, the southern Andaman Coast region at 20%, the southern Gulf of Thailand region at 10%, and the central region at 12%.

Global shrimp production is predicted to decrease by 2% YoY in 2024. In contrast, Thai shrimp production is expected to rise to 290 thousand mt, offering potential opportunities for increased shrimp exports to the US. This prospect arises as four major shrimp-producing countries, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, are currently under anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations by the US. The outcome of these investigations may reshuffle the dynamics of the shrimp trade, presenting Thailand with an opening to capitalize on emerging market trends.