W10 Wheat Update: India Eyes Record Wheat Harvest for 2023/24 MY, while Australia's Winter Wheat Production Expected to Slump by 36% YoY in 2023/24 MY

Bulgaria's Wheat Exports Rebound, Surpassing 4.4 MMT

Bulgaria experienced a sharp decrease in wheat exports in Jan-24, the lowest in six years at only 0.1 million metric tons (mmt). However, Feb-24's exports returned to normal levels, totaling 4.4 mmt for the season so far, doubling the amount from the previous year and setting a record. Despite expectations of exceeding 6 mmt by the season's end, projections suggest exports will likely reach around 5.5 mmt due to a surplus. The top three importers of Bulgarian wheat remain Indonesia, Algeria, and Spain, with exports to third countries totaling 3.3 mmt and nearly 1.1 mmt to the European Union (EU).

Slow Sowing in France Affects Soft Wheat Production Forecast

In France, the sowing progress for spring barley and durum wheat has been sluggish, showing only a 1% increase week-on-week (WoW). Despite this, the condition of winter wheat and barley, while slightly deteriorating, remains predominantly good to very good. However, the forecast for soft wheat production in the EU for 2024 was reduced by 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) due to disruptions from rain during the planting campaign. Consequently, grain prices, notably European wheat prices, remain low, with minimal recovery seen in the new week.

Russian Wheat Exports Reach 36.8 MMT in 2023/24 MY

According to the Union of Grain Exporters, Russian wheat exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) up to Feb-24 surged to 36.8 mmt. This increase is due to expanded sales markets and heightened shipments to countries such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Kenya, and Pakistan. With high-quality wheat and export duty benefits, Russia's competitive pricing has enabled it to outcompete rivals in markets like Afghanistan.

Indian Wheat Production Poised for Record High Amid Climate-Resistant Variety Adoption

Scientists at the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research anticipate that wheat production in India will reach an all-time high, aiming to cover 80% of the total wheat area with climate-resistant varieties. While official estimates for the 2023/24 MY are pending, analysts project production to be around 111 mmt, potentially surpassing the previous record of 110.55 mmt. The Indian Government hopes to exceed its wheat production target of 114 mmt if weather conditions remain favorable and more areas adopt climate-resistant varieties. Despite optimism, wheat prices recently rose above the minimum support price at auctions, signaling potential supply concerns.

Brazil Forecasts 14% Increase in 2024/25 Wheat Harvest

The 2024/25 Brazilian wheat harvest is forecasted to increase by 14% compared to the previous season, reaching 9.22 mmt. This growth is expected despite a drop in planted area, particularly in the southern region, where most cereal production occurs. The planted area is projected to decrease by 11% YoY to 3.05 million hectares (ha), with estimated productivity improving to 3.02 metric tons (mt) per ha, up from 2.34 mt/ha in the previous season, which was affected by adverse weather conditions.

Australia's Winter Wheat Production Expected to Decrease in 2023/24 MY

Australia's winter wheat production for 2023/24 is projected to decrease by 36% YoY to 26 mmt, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics (ABARES). This figure is 2% below the 10-year average but exceeds the previous projection. However, production is anticipated to rebound in 2024/25 MY to 28.4 mmt, surpassing the 10-year average. Wheat exports are forecasted to decline by 32% YoY in 2023/24 MY to 21.8 mmt due to lower production, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia. Despite this, exports are expected to surpass the ten-year average, supported by record production in the previous year. For 2024/25, export volumes are anticipated to decrease to 20 mmt but remain above average.