W20: Pork Update

In W20 in the pork landscape, in the first 9 working days of May 2023, Brazilian pork exports totaled 39.016MMT, valued at USD 101.282M, 48.9% of volume, and 53.08% of value registered in May 2022. Brazilian pork export revenue per daily average until W20 stood at USD 11.254M, up 29.8% YoY but down 14.87% WoW. The tons per daily average was 4,335.13MT, an increase of 16.05% WoW and 19.5% YoY, while the price paid per ton was USD 2.596M, up 1.4% WoW and 8.5% YoY. In the first three months of 2023, French pig slaughter experienced a significant decrease compared to previous years. For twelve consecutive months, French pig volumes decreased by 3.3%, while the number of heads dropped by 2.4%. For almost two years now, French pig volumes have been falling due to the decrease in the pig herd. Given the still unfavorable weather conditions and also the effects of inflation on consumption, French domestic pork demand remains rather sluggish at this stage. In the first two months of 2023, export volumes of fresh, chilled, or frozen pork from France decreased by 15% (12K MT) compared to the same period in 2022, with shipments destined for other EU countries declining by 15%, led by Italy (-3%). French pork exports are expected to remain fragile, given the development of domestic production and competition from the US and Brazil. Meanwhile, French pork imports, largely of EU origin, and mainly from Spain, decreased by 3% (-2K MT), while non-EU imports also decreased, mainly from the UK by 38% (-2K MT). This indicates that French domestic consumption is also decreasing, likely due to price inflation.

In W19, Italy confirmed the presence of African Swine Fever (ASF) in a wild boar in the Calabria region, a new long-distance jump of the virus to an area previously free and almost 800 km from the nearest affected area in the Lazio region. Positive wild boars were detected in different places in the Calabria region, while the outbreak in domestic pigs was detected in a small breeding farm with 70 pigs, where the suspicion was confirmed after two dead sows were found. In Q1 2023, Chinese pork imports totaled 820K MT, up 18.8% compared to Q1 2022, with fresh and frozen pork reaching 530K MT, up 26%. This is linked to the high demand for pork in China due to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. The main pork suppliers to China were Spain (132.36K MT), Denmark (up 38%), Brazil (121.85K MT), Canada (41.18K MT), and the US (40.63K MT). In Q1 2023, Russian pork exports reached 46.8K MT, up 32% compared to Q1 2022, with shipments to Vietnam totaling 18.9K MT, an increase of 127% over the same period. Russian pork exports to Hong Kong and Belarus also increased significantly during the period. This is due to the favorable situation on the global pork market, ruble devaluation, and domestic prices.

The USDA forecasts Japan’s pork imports to increase by 3.6-13.9% by 2028 due to trade agreements in place that could boost the competitiveness of trade partners in the country’s pork market. In particular, the USDA expects US pork exports to Japan to increase in value by USD 281M by 2028. Currently, 50% of Japanese pork production is destined for domestic consumption. However, Japan’s pork production is expected to drop by 4.2-11.8% in the next six years due to increased competition faced by domestic pork producers from foreign competitors. This situation leads to downward price pressure on Japan's pork industry, forcing producers out of business. Thus, Japan’s recent trade agreements could potentially boost foreign competitiveness and are anticipated to result in lower domestic pork production, higher pork import volumes, and increased availability of lower-cost foreign pork for Japanese consumers. Romania regains eligibility to export processed pork to the US from hogs slaughtered on and after May 2nd, 2023, following FSIS determination that the country maintains an equivalent inspection system for raw and processed pork products. In 2008, the Romanian government voluntarily ceased exporting meat products to the US and has since not been eligible to export any meat products to the US. Lastly, in the Philippines, as of May 8th, the Iloilo province’s swine inventory stood at 104.41K heads, 62% fewer than the 277.42K heads recorded in September 2022 before cases of African swine fever (ASF) were reported. Before ASF, the province had 289% sufficiency, thus it is currently not experiencing a shortage in supply. Currently, 25 municipalities in the province have recorded ASF cases, the latest being reported on April 14th in the municipality of Maasin. The provincial government has released USD 0.13M in financial assistance to 735 affected farmers from 23 municipalities.