1. Weekly News

Africa

African Coffee Producers Shift Up the Value Chain Through Cooperation, Innovation, and Market Diversification

African coffee-producing countries, notably Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, are strengthening South-South cooperation to elevate their status in the global coffee value chain. By leveraging trade fairs and e-commerce, they target emerging markets such as Egypt, Nigeria, and China to expand sales networks and reduce reliance on raw bean exports.

Around 800,000 smallholder farmers in Kenya are organized into approximately 500 cooperatives, enabling resource pooling, quality improvement, and increased bargaining power. Cooperatives like Mutira Farmers' Cooperative Society are enhancing yields and quality through agronomic support, credit-based input provision, and targeted training. Government reforms, including the Coffee Cherry Advance Revolving Fund (CCARF) and faster payment systems, have also supported productivity and export growth, with coffee export volumes rising 12% in 2024.

Ethiopia, Africa's largest coffee producer, is advancing value addition through its Fine Coffee Trademarking Initiative and policies promoting local branding and international market recognition. Uganda has followed suit, passing legislation to improve transparency in coffee trading and stimulate domestic processing.

Colombia

Colombia Faces Coffee Production Decline Due to Climate Strain and Regulatory Pressures

Colombia's coffee production is forecast to decline by 5.3% to 12.5 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in 2025/26 due to excessive rainfall that impacted flowering and fruit development. Exports are projected to fall to 11.8 million bags, down from 12.3 million in 2024/25. The United States (US) remains the primary export destination, followed by the European Union (EU) and Canada.

Despite high prices and favorable exchange rates supporting revenues, long-term challenges persist, including limited investment in replanting and adaptation to sustainability regulations such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable at 2.2 million bags, while imports are projected to rise to 1.5 million bags to meet local demand.

Colombia maintains high productivity with 87% of its coffee area planted with rust-resistant cultivars. However, the widespread adoption of new disease-resistant varieties remains limited. The sector continues to be supported by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (Fedecafé) public-private initiatives, including export support, research, and sustainability compliance.

Brazil

Brazil Coffee Outlook for 2025/26 Shows Modest Production Growth Amid Export Decline and Market Pressures

Brazil's coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 65 million 60-kg bags, a 0.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous year. The gain is driven by a 15% rise in Robusta output, which offsets a 6.4% drop in Arabica yields due to adverse weather and the off-year in the Arabica cycle. Exports are projected to decline by 5.6% YoY to 41.75 million bags amid global competition and logistical challenges, though revenue remains strong. Brazil retains its leading role in green and soluble coffee exports, supported by record prices. Domestic consumption is expected to rise slightly to 22.28 million bags, although high retail prices continue to suppress per capita demand.

India

Coffee Emerges as a Growing Economic Sector and Cultural Marker in Northeast India

Coffee cultivation in Nagaland, India, is gaining momentum as a new economic and cultural force. Once overshadowed by political unrest, the state is now home to nearly 250 farms and several roasteries producing Arabica and Robusta beans. Since 2015, government support has boosted production and post-harvest infrastructure. Entrepreneurs are building a specialty coffee ecosystem, promoting farm-to-cup models and training initiatives. While exports and quality improvements remain key challenges, Naga coffee has earned international recognition, and its growing presence is reshaping identity across the region.

South Korea

SCA to Host Global Coffee Value Summit in South Korea to Advance Industry Dialogue and Training

The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) will host the second Coffee Value Summit on June 19, 2025, in Busan, South Korea. This global forum brings together industry leaders, educators, roasters, and sensory experts to explore the concept of coffee value across sensory, industrial, and consumer dimensions. The event will feature strategic discussions and include the SCA's two-day Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) for Cuppers course, offering hands-on training in the organization's updated evaluation framework. The summit aims to foster global dialogue on how coffee value is defined and delivered across the supply chain.

United States

US Roasters Rally Against Tariffs as Petition Urges Coffee Exemption from Import Duties

A petition initiated by Coffee Bros, a US-based specialty coffee roaster, urging the US government to exempt coffee from broad import tariffs has garnered over 10,000 signatures within two months. Coffee Bros is known for sourcing high-quality beans and advocating for sustainable, transparent practices. The petition highlights the disconnect between US trade policy and the agricultural reality that coffee cannot be produced at scale domestically. As tariffs on key suppliers like Vietnam and Indonesia rise to 46% and 32% respectively, small US roasters face mounting pressures from increased costs, supply instability, and limited domestic alternatives. Advocates argue that treating coffee as a non-manufacturable, essential good is vital to safeguarding both global producers and US small businesses reliant on the international coffee supply chain.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W22 2024 to W22 2025)

Brazil

Brazil’s coffee prices declined by 3.22% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 11.74/kg, but remain nearly double YoY, an increase of 99.32% from USD 5.89/kg. This price correction reflects near-term market adjustments following sharp annual gains, but underlying conditions continue to support elevated pricing. Adverse weather in Minas Gerais, Brazil's main Arabica-producing region, has limited rainfall to just 4% of the historical average, constraining crop development. While Robusta output is rising due to irrigation investment, Arabica yields are under pressure from both climatic stress and the off-year in Brazil's biennial cycle.

These dynamics support a modest 0.5% YoY rise in total output for 2025/26, with Arabica supply tightening. Price volatility may persist, with lower projected exports and resilient domestic demand. If weather conditions do not improve in key Arabica areas, upward pressure on prices could re-emerge, particularly in the second half of 2025.

Colombia

In W22, Colombia's coffee prices fell by 7.38% WoW to USD 9.92/kg, despite a 29% YoY increase from USD 7.69/kg. The recent decline reflects short-term market corrections, influenced by rising global Arabica inventories and exchange rate fluctuations.

The Colombian peso (COP) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), reducing the local currency value of dollar-denominated exports and exerting downward pressure on domestic coffee prices. This trend, combined with growing global stocks and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including US fiscal concerns, has contributed to price volatility. Colombia's coffee production is showing a steady recovery, nearing 13 million bags, with Huila, Antioquia, Tolima, Cauca, and Caldas leading output. Exports have risen 12% YoY, signaling improved supply conditions.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s coffee prices declined by 2.49% WoW in W22 to USD 4.69/kg, pressured by rising supplies from competing origins and reduced scarcity. Traders report subdued export activity as Vietnamese beans remain priced above regional competitors, while elevated freight costs, driven by shipping demand ahead of the anticipated end of the US tariff pause, further dampen trade.

Despite the price drop, Vietnam earned USD 4.2 billion from coffee exports by mid-May-25, with values supported by earlier weather and trade disruptions. However, as these pressures ease and replanting efforts boost output, prices may soften further in the coming months. The Ministry of Agriculture targets 1.98 million metric tons (mmt) of production in 2025, while export volumes are projected to rise to 24.4 million bags, aided by improved supply and processing capacity.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Boost Coffee Quality and Exports Through Enhanced Cooperative and Government Support

African producers should scale up cooperative models like Kenya’s Mutira Farmers' Cooperative Society by expanding agronomic training, credit access, and faster payment mechanisms. Governments and private partners must strengthen South-South trade collaborations and e-commerce platforms to access emerging markets (Egypt, Nigeria, China), reducing reliance on raw exports and increasing value addition.

Secure Long-Term Supply Contracts to Manage Price Volatility and Supply Risks

Importers and roasters should proactively negotiate forward contracts with major producers such as Brazil and Colombia to hedge against anticipated supply shortfalls and price fluctuations driven by weather-related yield declines and logistical challenges. Diversifying sourcing to include emerging origins like Nagaland, India, can further stabilize supply chains and capture specialty coffee growth.

Sources: Tridge, Xinhua News Agency, Global Coffee Report, Comunicaffe International, Al Jazeera, Daily Coffee News, Dairy Forex, The Investor, Reuters, Nasdaq