In W29 in the chicken landscape, in its July forecast, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a slight decrease in the 2023 global chicken trade by 2.41% compared to the April estimate. The USDA also revised 2023 global chicken production downwards to 4.8 million metric tons (mmt), a decrease of 2% compared to the April estimate. Despite this, there are still firm shipments to Asia, the Middle East, and smaller markets in developing countries. Notably, until July 12, Brazil remained free of the highly pathogenic Avian Influenza virus in commercial operations, which allowed the country to avoid encountering restrictions faced by their main competitors.
The USDA expects Brazilian chicken meat production to grow 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) over the 10-year period from 2022/23 to 2032/33. This growth will position Brazil as a major global poultry producer. Brazilian meat production in 2022/23 is estimated to reach 29.6 mmt, with chicken meat being the primary contributor. The USDA projects Brazilian chicken meat production in the 2032/33 season to reach approximately 36.2 mmt, a significant increase of 28.1%. Moreover, the domestic chicken meat demand is also trending upward, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.2% between 2022/23 and 2032/33. As a result, Brazilian chicken consumption is expected to reach 12.9 mmt in 2032/33. Projections also indicate an annual growth of 2.8% in chicken meat exports over the next decade. This growth will position Brazil as the leading chicken meat exporter globally in 2032, commanding a 35.5% share of world exports, followed by the United States (US) with 25.0% and Thailand with 8.5%a major global poultry producer.
Brazilian chicken meat exports in W2 of Jul-23 experienced a significant surge, with a daily average of 23.15 thousand metric tons (mt). This is a notable increase of 17% compared to W1 of Jul-23, with 19.78 thousand mt/day. In the first 10 working days of Jul-23, Brazilian chicken meat export volume reached 214.65 thousand mt, averaging approximately 21.47 thousand mt/day, a 7.5% month-on-month (MoM) increase and almost 20% YoY growth. Additionally, the average price also showed improvement, rising from USD 1,936.45/mt in the first five working days of Jul-23 to USD 1,972.89/mt in the first two weeks of July. However, the current value remains 11.25% below the historical record set in Jul-22 when chicken meat was priced at USD 2,223.03/mt. The total volume is projected to reach around 450 thousand mt, valued at approximately USD 890 million, if these trends continue over the remaining 11 working days of Jul-23. This volume and value would be the highest on record for the month of July.
Lastly, the Poultry and Pork Intelligence Center (Cias) reports that Brazil’s broiler chicken production cost experienced a notable decrease in Jun-23 compared to May-23. The ICPFrango index for Jun-23 ended at 345.83 points, a reduction of 3.07% MoM. This is attributed to a decline in nutrition expenses by 5.13%, despite the cost of acquiring day-old chicks increased slightly by 1.84%. In the Paraná region, where broiler chickens are produced in aviary-type facilities with positive pressure climate control, the production cost stood at USD 0.93/kilogram (kg) live broiler chicken, a reduction of USD 0.03 MoM and a significant drop of USD 0.18 compared to Jan-23. The ICPFrango index accumulated a substantial decrease of 19.30% from Jan-23 to Jun-23 and a decline of 18.34% over the last 12 months.
