In W30 in the barley landscape, in its July forecast, the Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) expects the average European Union (EU) barley yields to vary significantly in 2023. Ireland is expected to have the highest average winter barley yield at 9.38 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), while Spain is anticipated to have the lowest at 1.64 mt/ha. The expected average winter barley yield in Poland is 4.68 mt/ha, 5% lower than the 2022 yield of 4.95 mt/ha but 1% higher than the five-year average. The EU’s average expected winter barley yield is 5.91 mt/ha. MARS also expects the highest average spring barley yields in Ireland at 6.94 mt/ha and the lowest in Spain at 2.25 mt/ha. Poland’s average spring barley yield is projected at 3.64 mt/ha, 8% less than the 2022 yield of 3.95 mt/ha but 6% higher than the five-year average. The EU’s average expected spring barley yield is 3.62 mt/ha.
According to the Deutscher Bauernverband (DBV), the autumn barley harvest in Germany is virtually over, surpassing initial expectations. This is despite facing challenges from adverse weather conditions in the spring and early summer. The autumn barley harvest is estimated at 9.5 million metric tons (mmt), exceeding both the 8.7 mmt harvested in the 2022/23 season and the expectation of 9.03 mmt. The winter barley crops in Germany were relatively unaffected by the dry weather during the spring and early summer. This resulted in higher-than-expected yields. Overall, the quality of the harvest is considered good.
Barley sowing in Argentina reached 89.5% of the planned area at 156 thousand ha in the last fortnight. In the Central-North regions of Córdoba and Santa Fé, the tillering stages of the barley are in good condition. This is due to adequate water availability and favorable temperatures for crop development. The main production centers also report favorable conditions for the plantations, with sufficient surface moisture during the initial stages. However, in the southern agricultural area, frosts had a minor impact on the leaf area, and some cases of flooding are still being reported. Overall, the situation in Argentina indicates promising progress for the barley crop, but localized challenges are being closely monitored.
Lastly, price increases in the Russian barley market were due to zero-duty preservation and increasing demand from Saudi Arabia and Libya. On the other hand, sustained low demand in the domestic market and higher areas under barley crops, particularly in the Central Federal District, relative to market expectations, led to lower barley prices. Barley prices in W30 were balanced against export parity and deemed fair. While no significant factors were driving Free On Board (FOB) prices upward, potential interruptions in grain supply from Ukraine could impact the price situation in the coming month. The overall outlook for the barley market suggests stability, but uncertainties remain, particularly about international trade dynamics.
