Weekly Product Updates

W36: Barley Update

Published Sep 15, 2023

In W36 in the barley landscape, the Russian barley market registered a significant price increase, returning to the peak level recorded a month ago despite the prevailing overstocking issue in the ports. This price surge could be attributed to heightened demand from importers who increasingly opted to secure large Russian barley volumes, benefiting from its considerable price advantage over European and Australian alternatives. Experts indicate that barley Free On Board (FOB) prices will most likely continue rising over the next one to two months, leading to an increase in ruble prices.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) estimates Ukraine's 2023 barley harvest at 5.8 million metric tons (mmt), an increase from the August estimate of 5.2 mmt and aligning with the 2022 harvest. This upward adjustment in the harvest forecast is primarily attributed to the favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected crop yields. UZA also anticipates Ukraine’s barley exports to reach 3 mmt in the 2023/2024 season. UZA highlights that the increase in barley exports in 2023/24 is contingent on Ukraine's ability to utilize its Black Sea ports for exports and realize logistic cost reductions through alternative routes, including the Danube route.

Barley cultivation in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is projected to cover 35.9 thousand hectares (ha) with an expected productivity rate of 3,144 kilograms (kg) per ha. The administrative region of Emater/RS in Erechim boasts the largest barley cultivation area in Rio Grande do Sul, often linked to breweries through commercial contracts. Currently, the barley crop enjoys optimal conditions, with all fields progressing to the flowering stage. Despite isolated patches of rainfall, Ijuí municipality maintains a positive outlook for barley crop productivity. From a phenological perspective, 30% of the crops are in the vegetative development stage, 50% in flowering, and 20% in the grain-filling phase.

Lastly, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), the United Kingdom (UK) successfully concluded its winter barley harvest in W36, achieving an average yield ranging from 6.2 metric tons (mt) per ha to 9 mt/ha. Furthermore, approximately 59% of the designated UK spring barley hectarage was threshed as of August 29, behind the five-year average of 63%. The spring barley yield is expected to range from 5.5 mt/ha to 5.9 mt/ha.

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