1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Market Faces Major Shifts with Vietnam's Decline and Brazil's Rise

In the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4-2024), Vietnam's coffee exports dropped by over 40% due to farmers holding back stock in anticipation of higher prices. Meanwhile, Brazil experienced a record 32.42% increase in coffee exports in the first five months of the 2024/25 season, solidifying its position as a top global producer. Coffee prices rose due to higher shipping costs following conflicts in the Red Sea and port congestion in Brazil, further impacting global supply chains. This intensifies competition for Vietnam, which faces challenges from Brazil and must adapt to ongoing market fluctuations.

Brazil

Brazilian Coffee Production Drops 1.6% in 2024

According to the National Supply Company’s (Conab) latest report, Brazil’s coffee harvest in 2024 reached 54.21 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, a 1.6% decline from 2023. Arabica accounted for 73.03% of the total, with 39.59 million 60-kg bags and a slight 0.2% productivity increase. Robusta/Conilon made up 26.97% but saw a 5.9% drop in productivity. The southeast region remained dominant, producing 88.08% of the national total. The report highlights climate and production dynamics as key factors shaping the industry.

Brazil Sets Record Coffee Export Volume in 2024

In 2024, Brazil achieved a historic milestone by exporting over 50 million 60-kg coffee bags, marking a 28.5% increase from 2023 and surpassing the previous record set in 2020 by 12.8%. Arabica coffee accounted for 73% of exports, while Robusta contributed 27%. Shipments of Arabica grew by 20%, while Robusta exports surged by 98%. Brazil's coffee industry continues to dominate global markets, supplying coffee to 116 countries.

India

India’s Coffee Exports Surge as Global Demand Grows

India’s coffee exports have almost doubled in four years, reaching USD 1.29 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2023/24. India saw significant growth in coffee exports, particularly in the first half of Jan-25, with top buyers including Italy, Belgium, and Russia. Approximately 75% of India’s coffee production consists of Arabica and Robusta beans, mostly exported as unroasted beans. While most coffee is exported unroasted, demand for roasted and instant coffee is growing. The Coffee Board of India has launched initiatives to boost production and sustainability, with success stories like Araku Valley showcasing the impact on local communities.

Peru

Peruvian Coffee Exports Hit Record Highs in 2024

Peru’s coffee exports reached a record-high of 255,670 tons in 2024, generating USD 1.127 billion, a 23% increase in volume and 36% in value year-on-year (YoY). The average price rose 10% to USD 4.41/kg. The United States (US) remained the top market with 28% share, followed by Germany and Belgium. The main shipping routes were the Euroandinos–Paita terminal (64%), DP World (21%), and APM Terminals (15%), underscoring Peru’s strategic export infrastructure.

United States

Tariffs on Colombia Threaten to Push Coffee Prices Even Higher

The US president’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Colombian imports could further accelerate the record surge in coffee prices in the US, with futures already up 45% in six months. Colombia, the second-largest coffee supplier to the US, accounts for 20% of imports, while Brazil, the top supplier, struggles with poor harvests. Retail coffee prices will rise within weeks, following the recent spike in wholesale prices. The tariffs come amid diplomatic tensions over Colombia’s refusal to accept deported migrants, with the US president threatening even harsher trade measures.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W4 2024 to W4 2025)

Brazil

Brazil’s coffee prices surged 12.6% week-on-week (WoW), 7.92% month-on-month (MoM), and 42.05% YoY, reaching USD 8.31/kg in W4. The increase is driven by multiple factors, including Brazil’s production decline of 1.6% in 2024, with Robusta output dropping 5.9%, limiting domestic supply. In addition, Brazil also saw record exports in 2024 that increased by 28.5% YoY. Additionally, higher shipping costs due to conflicts in the Red Sea and port congestion in Brazil have further strained supply chains, increasing costs for exporters and importers alike. Altogether, these are pushing prices higher.

Colombia

Colombian coffee prices reached USD 7.35/kg in W4, showing a 0.54% WoW decline and a 2.08% MoM increase. This indicates minor fluctuations driven by market conditions and ongoing supply-demand interactions. These small price changes reflect short-term adjustments rather than a significant trend shift. However, the 11.87% YoY decline is largely due to Colombia's record 2024 harvest, which saw a 23% production increase, significantly boosting supply and pressuring prices downward compared to the previous year. While demand remains steady, the increased availability of Colombian coffee has contributed to the overall price decline.

Vietnam

Vietnamese coffee prices increased to USD 4.83/kg in W4, reflecting a 5.46% WoW and 2.11% MoM rise. The reduced supply in Vietnam and other competing markets has intensified competition in the market, exacerbating the current price increase. As market conditions remain tight, Vietnam’s lower availability continues to influence global coffee pricing trends. Also, Vietnam’s coffee exports have dropped by 40%, as farmers are holding back stock in anticipation of higher prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Monitor US Tariffs on Colombian Coffee and Seize Market Openings

With 25% tariffs on Colombian coffee, US buyers may seek alternative suppliers to offset rising costs. Exporters from Brazil, Peru, and India should actively engage with US importers to secure contracts and expand their market share in case Colombian sales decline. Leveraging competitive pricing, stable supply chains, and diversified offerings, these exporters can position themselves as viable alternatives, ensuring long-term partnerships in the US market.

Diversify Sourcing Strategies Amid Supply Shifts

With Vietnam’s supply constraints and Brazil’s rising exports, importers should diversify procurement to mitigate risks. Buyers dependent on Vietnamese Robusta can explore alternative sources like Indonesia or Uganda, where Robusta production remains stable. Meanwhile, India’s growing coffee exports offer an opportunity for roasters seeking a mix of Arabica and Robusta with competitive pricing.

Sources: Tridge, Agraria Peru, Agro Peru, India New England, Kvedomosti, Noticias Agricolas, Portal do Agronegocios, Ticari Hayat, UKR Agro Consult, Vina Net