Weekly Product Updates

W41: Beef Update

Fresh Bone-In Beef
Fresh Whole Beef
Published Oct 20, 2023

In W41 in the beef landscape, United States (US) beef production is set to decline in 2023 by over 600 thousand tons compared to the previous year due to decreased feedlot slaughter. Steer prices in the US have risen by 28% year-on-year (YoY). Beef imports in the US have grown by 3%, with increased imports from New Zealand and Australia. Frozen beef from Oceania has surpassed fresh beef imports to the US. However, Mexico and Brazil have experienced decreased beef trade due to tariff restrictions. Beef exports from the US have dropped by 93 thousand tons due to lower domestic supplies and economic conditions in key nations. Globally, the changes in US beef production and prices are impacting supply and demand dynamics, with Australia and New Zealand stepping in to meet demand. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts reduced Chinese demand in 2024, and prices are forecasted to vary internationally, with firm US prices and pressure on Australian and Brazilian prices. This situation will influence the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK) markets, particularly regarding import price competitiveness.

Mexican meat exports to the US have experienced an 8.9% decline until W40, with a slight recovery toward the end of that period. Beef shipments have decreased by 10% YoY, totaling 205.31 thousand tons. However, there was a 16% increase in shipments compared to W39, amounting to 4.84 thousand tons.

Brazil's beef exports from Jan-23 to Sep-23 have experienced a significant decline, with a 26% drop in value amounting to USD 2.34 billion compared to 2022. This decline is due to lower export prices and a 5% decrease in volume. China, as the largest export destination, recorded substantial declines in both volume and prices, with a 7% drop in export volume and a 28% decrease in average export price. Factors contributing to China's weakened demand include currency fluctuations, increased domestic beef production, and lower prices. A temporary suspension of beef exports to China in early 2023 also affected volume. While there was a recovery in exports, the demand from China softened in the third quarter. Other factors influencing beef trade include competition from countries offering higher prices and China's increasing beef production. September's export figures showed some improvement, with a 5.3% increase in volume and a slight rise in average export prices. However, the overall yearly decline in volume and value continues, with a potential for downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Bolivia's beef exports have been hampered by recurring road blockades, particularly in the Santa Cruz department, with over 160 days of interdepartmental route closures recorded in 2023. Of the 20 thousand tons authorized by the government for export, only 12.8 thousand tons have left the country due to these blockades. Exports are lower than the same period in 2022, impacting the ability to meet export quotas. Despite Bolivia's reputation for high-quality beef, the blockades have raised concerns about the country's credibility as a reliable trading partner. The livestock sector supports eliminating export quotas to expand foreign currency income. Bolivia exports beef to various countries, with China being a major importer, demanding 60% of beef exports.

Lastly, in Sep-23, the average consumer price for beef in Ukraine rose by 1.1% Month-on-Month (MoM), reaching USD 6.31 per kilogram (UAH 230.59/kg), compared to USD 6.24/kg (UAH 227.99/kg) in Aug-23. Compared to Sep-22, the price of beef has increased by 14.8% from USD 5.50/kg (UAH 200.92/kg). It's important to note that these statistics do not include territories temporarily occupied by Russia or areas affected by hostilities.

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