W8 Soybean Oil Update: Paraná's Accelerated Soybean Harvest Drove Record Exports in Jan-24, Chicago Soybean Oil Prices Drop Amid Processing Surge

Published 2024년 3월 2일

In W8 in the soybean oil landscape, accelerated soybean harvest in Paraná, Brazil, in Jan-24 led to a surge in soy complex exports, reaching 1.2 mmt, a 282% increase YoY. Soybean oil sales reached 29.3 thousand mt, generating USD 28.8 million in revenue. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to decline to 94 mmt in 2024, while domestic oilseed processing is anticipated to rise, affecting soybean oil prices globally. Meanwhile, Pakistan experienced substantial declines in edible oil imports during the first seven months of the 2023/24 MY, notably soybean oil, decreasing by 49.85% YoY to 91.95 thousand mt.

Accelerated Soybean Harvest Boosted Exports in Paraná, Brazil

Paraná, Brazil, experienced an unusually accelerated soybean harvest in Jan-24, significantly increasing the volume of soy complex products exported from the state. The exports reached a record high for the month, with 1.2 million metric tons (mmt) of products leaving the state, marking a 282% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Additionally, 29.3 thousand metric tons (mt) of soybean oil were sold, generating revenues of USD 28.8 million, compared to 50.7 thousand mt in the previous year, with revenues of USD 64.2 million. This surge in exports is attributed to the early harvest this year.

Brazil Forecasted Decrease in Soybean Exports, but Surge in Domestic Processing and Biodiesel Production

Brazil's soybean exports are anticipated to decline to 94 mmt in 2024, down from 101.9 mmt the previous year. However, domestic processing of oilseeds is expected to increase to 54.3 mmt, with soybean oil consumption for biodiesel production rising by 18% YoY to 5.2 mmt. Exports of soybean meal and oil are forecasted to reach 21 mmt and 1.5 mmt, respectively. Additionally, soybean reserves in Brazil may total 3.2 mmt by the end of 2024.

Soybean Oil Prices Declined on Chicago Exchange Amid Processing Volume Increase

Accelerated soybean harvests in Brazil and improved weather conditions in Argentina contributed to upward pressure on soybean oil prices, causing prices in neighboring palm and sunflower oil markets to decrease. Mar-24 soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange declined by 3.5% to USD 1,004/mt during W8, marking a 3% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. This decline comes amid increased processing volume and soybean oil stocks in the United States (US). According to The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean processing in the US reached a record 5.06 mmt in Jan-24, a 3.8% YoY increase, with soybean oil stocks rising by 10.8% MoM, reaching 684.2 thousand mt.

Argentina's Soybean Export Revenue Hits Lowest Since 2009

Argentina recorded approximately USD 13.697 billion in revenue from soybean exports in 2023, marking the lowest figure since 2009. Despite the decrease in soybean exports, the oilseed industry remained Argentina's primary export complex. Most South American oilseed exports were directed to China during this period, amounting to USD 1.021 billion. Additionally, India emerged as the top buyer of Argentine soybean oil, with purchases totaling USD 1.387 billion, while Vietnam was a significant importer of Argentine soybean meal, accounting for USD 1.048 billion in imports.

Pakistan Sees Significant Decline in Soybean Oil Imports in 2023/24 MY

During the first seven months of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), Pakistan experienced substantial declines in the imports of edible oils, including soybean and palm oil. Specifically, soybean oil imports dropped by 49.85% YoY, with 91.95 thousand mt imported valued at USD 99.990 million. This is a notable contrast to the previous year's import volume of 136.87 thousand mt, valued at USD 199.386 million.