ICE Futures has the smallest certified coffee stock in the last 20 years

The drop in ICE certified stocks has drawn attention from the coffee market in recent days. The data released last week signaled that stocks in New York have 1,234 million bags, while London maintains stocks with 10,908 million bags, the figures are noteworthy because they are the lowest monitored stocks in the last 20 years.

The numbers may indicate an indication of normal consumption, in addition to a change in the purchase. The analysis indicates that mainly in Europe, where the Coronavirus pandemic determined quarantine measures first than in the United States, for example, certified stocks were consumed in large quantities.

It is important to note that the Coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, in March, generated a lot of uncertainty regarding coffee shipments. The country did not register any disruption in deliveries, but still important for buyers such as Europe and the United States show that the stored coffees were consumed in the period. World coffee consumption grows about 1% per year, but it is worth remembering that due to Covid-19, there are still no exact figures for 2020, but it seems that the numbers should remain stable, that is, without high or low significant for coffee consumption.

In addition to the pandemic factor, the largest volume of certified Arabica coffee is produced in Honduras, a country that faces severe difficulties and may not be able to meet the needs of the market.

For the next few days, the market is expected to digest information on lower stocks and new highs can be recorded in New York. Speaking of Brazil, the national coffee sector is focused on receiving coffee in warehouses and the harvest of the 2020 harvest is in the final stretch, with 92% of the area harvested, according to data from Cooxupé. It is worth remembering that Brazil went through an off-season with the lowest stocks in history. The trend is for exports to gain respite in the second half.

Also in the second half, the market may notice an increase in consumption of the beverage in the Northern Hemisphere, with the arrival of winter, especially in the United States, the largest consumer of Brazilian coffee. According to data from Cecafé, only in August did the United States account for 18% of Brazilian exports, with 4.3 million bags of coffee.