April 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,196.90 per 40-foot container in Mar-25, marking a 29.79% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 24.7% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The drop was mainly driven by the seasonal demand slump following Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 and the end of frontloading activities. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 128.40 points in Mar-25, marking a 3.80% MoM decrease, driven by falling urea prices, which offset increases in diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are forecast to decrease due to improved supply. In contrast, low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Apr-25. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to fluctuate due to external factors such as weather conditions and United States (US) trade policies.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to remain low due to subdued demand.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bearish in Apr-25 due to reduced demand and excess stock. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain strong due to increased demand, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade up due to low supply.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will continue their downward trend in Apr-25. This bearish trend will likely persist due to low demand owing to the ongoing tariff situation in the US.