August 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,531.25/40-foot container, marking a 25.46% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 50.19% year-on-year (YoY) drop. The decrease was largely attributed to sluggish demand following an earlier wave of frontloading ahead of the initial Jul-25 tariff deadline. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index reached a record high of 127.26 points, reflecting a 1.16% MoM increase and a 6.05% YoY rise. The overall gain was driven by stronger prices in poultry, beef, and lamb, which outweighed the decline in pork.

- Beef: Global beef prices are expected to stay elevated in the near term, supported by tight supplies and steady demand. While United States (US) and European Union (EU) prices remain firm on shrinking herds, Brazil faces downside risk from the 50% US tariff. However, Australia is set to gain from the tariff shift, strengthening its position in the US market.

- Poultry: US chicken exports are expected to strengthen with steady global demand and expanded access to China after approval of 83 processing plants in May-25, keeping prices stable. Brazil’s regained status as a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-free is expected to support export recovery as bans are lifted. Meanwhile, EU prices may face short-term pressure from Spain’s outbreak but stay firm YoY on strong demand.

- Pork: US pork export prices are expected to stay firm, supported by strong demand in Latin America despite China’s tariff challenges. Brazil is set to maintain robust export momentum, especially to the Philippines, while the EU market faces subdued prices due to rising supplies, lower exports, and higher imports.

- Lamb: New Zealand and Australia’s lamb export prices are expected to stay elevated in the coming months, driven by strong global demand and constrained domestic supplies.