April 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,196.90 per 40-foot container in Mar-25, marking a 29.79% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 24.7% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The drop was mainly driven by the seasonal demand slump following Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 and the end of frontloading activities. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 128.40 points in Mar-25, marking a 3.80% MoM decrease, driven by falling urea prices, which offset increases in diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 109.70 points, a 2.58% MoM decline. The decrease was driven by falling prices for wheat, maize, sorghum, and rice.

- Wheat: Australian wheat export prices are expected to stay under pressure in the coming months, driven by a likely increase in shipments in the latter half of the season and the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere’s new crop around Jul-25. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and cautious selling by exporters. In contrast, United States (US) wheat prices are likely to remain subdued in Apr-25 amid ample stocks, improved weather, and stronger exports YoY.

- Maize: US corn export prices are likely to remain volatile due to ongoing trade tensions but are expected to stay elevated in Apr-25, supported by the country's competitive edge over other major exporters. Brazil’s corn prices are likely to remain stable, bolstered by recent rains, though concerns over delayed Safrinha planting may limit yields. Meanwhile, Argentina’s maize prices are expected to strengthen as the harvest progresses and global buyers turn to Argentine corn amidst strong demand and uncertainty from US tariff hikes.

- Rice: India’s rice export prices are likely to remain subdued through Apr-25, as supply continues to outpace demand despite strong export growth. Thai rice prices are also expected to stay under pressure due to ongoing global competition, especially from India. Vietnam’s rice prices may edge higher, supported by rising demand for high-quality varieties and potential market stabilization, though they are still projected to stay well below year-ago levels amid a global supply surplus.