April 2025 Outlook Report: Oils

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,196.90 per 40-foot container in Mar-25, marking a 29.79% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 24.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The drop was mainly driven by the seasonal demand slump following Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 and the end of frontloading activities. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 128.40 points in Mar-25, marking a 3.80% MoM decrease, driven by falling urea prices, which offset increases in diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 161.80 points in Mar-25, reflecting a 3.72% MoM increase, driven by higher prices for palm, rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower oils.

- Soybean Oil: United States (US) soybean prices are expected to remain bearish in Apr-25 due to weakened demand and high stock levels. Similarly, limited demand is expected to keep Argentinian prices under pressure.

- Palm Oil: Tightening domestic supply amid sustained export growth is expected to keep Malaysian palm oil prices elevated.

- Sunflower Oil: In Ukraine and Russia, restricted domestic supply due to strong export demand is set to sustain the ongoing bullish trend, while limited stocks are expected to keep prices in the European Union (EU) high.