April Outlook Report - Nuts and Oils

Nuts:
India's peanut prices have been subject to erratic price movements due to late rains and weak demand. More rain is forecasted during the Rabi harvest, leading to crop losses. Brazil is expected to produce a record peanut crop this year, offsetting losses in Argentina, which is experiencing one of its worst crop years due to drought.
In Spain, slow demand and large almond inventories globally keep prices in a sideways trend. In the US, strong exports and uncertainty about the 2023 crop are supportive of prices, which could factor in a risk premium until there is more clarity on production.
In Europe, walnut prices in Italy decreased in March but are expected to move sideways with gradual increases and decreases as demand slowly picks up. Chile expects another record year in terms of production and exports, with good quality nuts offered at a better price, making them popular in India and leaving room for upward price movements.
European demand for hazelnuts remains sluggish, with weak consumer demand and competition from other nuts keeping prices under pressure, while in Turkey, exports are down 19% YoY, with buyers waiting for more certainty about the crop amid warm and dry winter weather.

Oils:
Palm oil prices rose due to slightly higher crude oil prices in the last days of March and going into April, with traders rushing to close positions pushing it up to $1050/mt.
European olive oil prices have remained stable despite strong decreases in EU olive oil production to 1.39 million mt, which is 35% below the 5-year average, leading to prices trending higher.
Sunflower oil prices have continued their downward trend due to low export demand and an expected 18% YoY increase in sunflower seed production in the EU.
The price of rapeseed has decreased and is forecasted to remain low due to an increase in global production, which is offset slightly by a potential increase in crushing for biodiesel in the EU.