August 2024 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) averaged USD 5,081.75 in Jul-24, an 18.69% increase from USD 4,281.67 in Jun-24. The World Bank’s fertilizer index rebounded, rising for the second consecutive month, increasing by 10.96% from 108.45 points in May-24 to 129.34 points in Jul-24. The 1.81% MoM increase observed in Jul-24 was primarily driven by a 1.86% rise in urea prices, which more than offset the declines in potassium chloride (-3.02% MoM) and diammonium phosphate (DAP, -0.66% MoM).

- Coffee: Brazilian coffee prices are forecast to increase due to low supply as the harvest draws to a close. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in August. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to increase due to potential weather concerns, specifically related to the El Niño phenomenon.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are set to increase due to low domestic supply, owing to increased export incentives.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are expected to remain elevated in August due to production concerns. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will trend downward due to increased supply, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade high due to low production levels.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in August. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa remain unresolved.