August 2024 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) global meat price index grew 1.23% month-on-month (MoM), primarily driven by beef, lamb, and poultry price increases. In contrast, the pig meat price index slightly declined compared to the previous month. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) averaged USD 5,081.75 in Jul-24, an 18.69% increase from USD 4,281.67 in Jun-24.

- Beef: Beef prices in the United States (US) are expected to keep trending upwards in Aug-24 due to domestic supply constraints. In Australia, beef prices are anticipated to remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand from the US, where supply shortages are driving increased imports. In the European Union (EU), beef prices are expected to remain high but stable, supported by increased summer demand and easing inflation. Conversely, beef prices in Brazil are expected to stay low and relatively stable, driven by the high exportable supplies and the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar.

- Poultry: Chicken prices in the US are expected to remain relatively stable or to decrease slightly in Aug-24 due to the lower marketability of its products and ongoing restrictions, resulting from the avian influenza outbreak. In Brazil, chicken export prices are anticipated to remain relatively stable, supported by strong global demand as other major exporters, like the US, struggle with the avian influenza outbreak. Meanwhile, poultry prices in the EU will likely continue rising, driven by increasing demand due to its cost-effectiveness and reduced competition from imported products.

- Pork: Pork prices in the US and Brazil are projected to continue rising in Aug-24, driven by robust global demand and ample exportable supplies. In contrast, pork prices in the EU are expected to decline due to increased market supplies amid sluggish demand. The ongoing anti-dumping investigation by China on imported pork and its by-products from the EU could exacerbate the situation by negatively impacting EU exports, leading to further increases in domestic supply and downward pressure on prices.

- Lamb: Lamb prices in Australia are expected to continue rising, driven by strong global demand and anticipated supply tightness in the coming months. In New Zealand, lamb prices are predicted to remain low, underpinned by reduced purchases from China and competition from Australia.