December 2024 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,548.52 per 40-foot container in Nov-24, a 1.02% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The rise is attributed to frontloading in anticipation of a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in Jan-25 and expected tariff increases stemming from the recent United States (US) election outcomes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped to an average of 119.72 points in Nov-24, a 3.05% MoM decline. This drop was primarily driven by falling urea prices, which offset moderate increases in potassium chloride and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices.

- Avocado: In Mexico, avocado prices are declining due to an oversupply in the market, despite steady demand from the US, particularly for premium-sized fruit. In Spain, prices are under significant pressure as increased imports from Morocco and higher domestic production have led to market saturation, with smaller sizes facing the most critical challenges. In Chile, avocado prices are also falling due to intense competition from other exporters in key markets, though vital domestic consumption and growing export opportunities offer some support.

- Grape: In South Africa, table grape exports are expected to rise slightly, supported by advanced production techniques and strong European demand. However, prices dropped in Nov-24 due to high harvest volumes and weak international trade dynamics, with stabilization expected in Dec-24. In Peru, logistical disruptions from miner protests have impacted exports, causing supply imbalances that may push prices up in Dec-24 despite a slight decline in Nov-24. Meanwhile, Chile is experiencing production and export growth driven by improved yields and strong demand from key markets. However, labor shortages and competition from Peru remain challenges, with prices expected to decline in Dec-24 as supply increases.

- Mango: Market oversupply drove down mango prices in Peru and Brazil, with production volumes outpacing demand in key export regions. In Peru, the abundant harvest and challenges in building a strong brand identity have intensified price pressures despite the industry's international expansion. Similarly, Brazil's prices have been affected by reduced production, logistical challenges, and increased competition from other mango-exporting countries. While demand is expected to stabilize prices slightly in the upcoming period, the current market dynamics continue to favor lower pricing.