January 2025 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,634.40 per 40-foot container in Dec-24, a 2.42% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This rise is attributed to increased pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, frontloading in anticipation of the now-averted International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) port strike slated for Jan-25, and expected tariff hikes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped by 0.09% MoM to an average of 119.61 points in Dec-24. This minimal decline was primarily driven by a drop in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset an increase in potassium chloride.

- Avocado: In Dec-24, avocado prices in Mexico, Spain, and Chile reflected varying market dynamics influenced by supply, demand, and competition. In Mexico, prices declined due to oversupply and stable production, though seasonal holiday demand and strong exports to the United States (US), driven by events like the Super Bowl, provided temporary support. Spain saw a slight price recovery after a prior drop, whereas oversupply from domestic production and competition from emerging exporters like Morocco kept prices under pressure. Meanwhile, Chile experienced a modest price increase due to holiday demand and steady exports to Asia and the Middle East. However, year-on-year (YoY) prices fell due to intensified competition in key markets and logistical challenges.

- Grape: Wholesale prices of fresh grapes in Chile, Peru, and South Africa in Dec-24 were influenced by seasonal production peaks, export dynamics, and logistical challenges. Chile’s prices dropped sharply due to increased supply during its harvest season. Nevertheless, its focus on new grape varieties and filling supply gaps in key markets like the US and Europe helped maintain competitiveness. In Peru, prices declined as production improved and exports increased, supported by cold storage solutions to address logistical bottlenecks, with record export volumes projected for the 2024/25 season. South Africa saw the steepest price decline, driven by abundant local harvests and logistical issues, though strong export demand and improved port efficiency are expected to stabilize prices in early 2025.

- Mango: The wholesale price of fresh mango in Peru and Brazil reflected contrasting trends influenced by supply and demand changes in Dec-24. Peru experienced a sharp price decline due to an abundant mango supply outpacing demand in both domestic and export markets despite a significant surge in export volumes, particularly to the US and the Netherlands. In contrast, Brazil saw a slight price recovery as steady supply matched demand, though prices remained significantly lower YoY due to persistent oversupply challenges.