June 2025 Outlook Report: Fruits

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,123.76 per 40-foot container in May-25, marking a 3.8% month-on-month (MoM) increase but a 31.25% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The recent price rise is largely attributed to a rebound in the China–United States (US) ocean freight demand after they both temporarily rolled back their retaliatory tariffs by 115% from May 14. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.20 points, marking a 3.06% MoM increase and a 22.82% YoY rise. This overall gain was driven by price increases in key fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP), potassium chloride, and urea.

- Avocado: Avocado prices in all three markets, Mexico, Spain and Chile, showed strong seasonality, with lows during peak harvest and partial recovery afterward. Mexican avocado prices in May-25 recovered to USD 3.22 per kilogram (kg), a 4.88% YoY increase. This is driven by tight supply and strong international demand, which also boosted early 2025 export values. In Spain, May-25 prices soared 24.35% YoY to USD 3.37/kg due to heightened demand. Production forecast is up over 20% YoY from improved yields and rainfall, despite ongoing drought in Axarquía and competitive pressure that Spanish avocado producers face due to increasing avocado volumes imported from Morocco.

- Grape: Chilean fresh grape prices in May-25 rose 53.68% MoM to USD 1.46/kg as an early-ending season created a supply gap, despite earlier US market oversupply issues from heavy Chilean and Peruvian shipments. Peruvian prices also increased 23.33% MoM to USD 0.74/kg due to limited end-of-season supply, following a period where aggressive US exports contributed to market saturation and price pressures. Meanwhile, South African grape prices increased 15.55% MoM to USD 2.08/kg, also driven by dwindling supply at season's end, after a record export season saw significant growth in North American markets. However, potential US tariffs pose a future concern.

- Mango: Peruvian mango prices collapsed during the main export window, consistent with reports of record volumes and oversupply. Peruvian fresh mango prices in May-25 edged down 5.88% MoM to USD 0.48/kg, continuing a trend of low prices following a seasonal peak in Jul-24 and a sharp decline due to significant oversupply from record export volumes. Driven by favorable flowering conditions and the expansion of new production areas, this oversupply led to market saturation and prices falling as much as 30% from the previous year.