May 2024 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices are on a downward trend in Mar-24 and Apr-24 as global freight companies learn to navigate the tensions in the Middle East. However, freight prices will likely remain elevated as global ocean cargo demand is up year-on-year (YoY) and is expected to increase further in the coming months. The World Bank fertilizer index fell 4.66% between Dec-23 and Apr-24, indicating a subtle but consistent downward trend.
- Avocado: Mexican prices have rebounded, reaching USD 3.86 per kilogram (kg) in 2024, and the United States (US) remains a key export destination, accounting for 81% of total exports. Despite limited domestic production, Spain's avocado market is robust, driven by high demand and rising consumption trends. Prices tend to increase during the off-season when imports are low, reflecting the market's sensitivity to supply levels. Chile's avocado production and exports are set to grow significantly in 2023/24, with the country focusing on expanding its cultivation area. However, the wholesale price of avocados has sharply declined since Jan-24, reaching USD 3.98/kg in Apr-24, and a continued downward trend is expected.
- Grape: Ecuador's grape prices in 2024 are stable and showing positive trends, with wholesale prices increasing significantly from the previous year. The European grape market faced challenges in 2023, leading to a shift towards overseas suppliers. Despite this, prices are expected to increase due to the seasonality of Southern Hemisphere suppliers and the new harvest. Market conditions varied across countries, with Spain and France experiencing specific issues. China's table grape production is predicted to increase in the 2023/24 season, with exports forecasted to rise. However, imports are expected to fall due to improved domestic grape quality. The market faced challenges in 2023/24, with low prices and limited demand, particularly for black grape types.
- Mango: Mexico is a leading supplier of mangoes to the US, with a 65.5% market share. The Mexican mango season is expected to have consistent shipments despite challenges, with prices rising due to US demand. Cyclone Yaku has significantly affected Peru's mango exports, leading to a drastic drop in exports. Due to the limited supply, the wholesale price of mangoes in Peru has been rising steadily. Excessive rainfall in Southern and Southeastern Brazil has impacted fruit crops, including mangoes. Despite a drop in wholesale prices, a price increase is expected in May due to a low supply of high-quality mangoes.