May 2024 Outlook Report: Oils

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices are on a downward trend in Mar-24 and Apr-24 as global freight companies learn to navigate the tensions in the Middle East. However, freight prices will likely remain elevated as global ocean cargo demand is up year-on-year (YoY) and is expected to increase further in the coming months. The World Bank fertilizer index fell 4.66% between Dec-23 and Apr-24, indicating a subtle but consistent downward trend. In Apr-24, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) vegetable oil index only marginally increased by 0.3 points to 130.9 points, reaching a 13-month high.
- Soybean Oil: In April-24 US soybean oil was trading at around USD 1,086/mt, which is still at more than a USD 100/mt premium compared to South American soybean oil. Soybean oil in Argentina and Brazil rebounded in Mar-24 and Apr-24, trading at USD 927/mt and USD 940/mt respectively. This increase is resulting in the gap between US and South American soybean oil narrowing.
- Palm Oil: Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil prices have been on a steady upward trend since Oct-23, reaching USD 1,010/mt and USD 995/mt in Apr-24 respectively. The primary reasons for the increase in palm oil prices were strong purchases from India at the start of 2024, a seasonal drawdown in Malaysia crude palm oil stocks, and seasonally low production in Malaysia.
- Sunflower Oil: Sunflower oil prices in Russia and Ukraine have been trading relatively flat at marginally above USD 800/mt levels since the start of the year. However, sunflower oil prices rose sharply by USD 38/mt in both countries in Apr-24 to USD 845/mt in Ukraine and USD 839/mt in Russia. The primary drivers of increased sunflower oil prices are strong import demand, especially from India, and concerns over unfavorable weather conditions in Europe.