September Outlook Report: Nuts and Oils

- The Northern Hemisphere peanut harvest is about to start, with adverse weather impacting production in India and China, the effect of which is still being assessed. The El Niño weather phenomenon has resulted in dry conditions in the late growing season of Indian Kharif peanuts, while floods in China’s northeastern provinces could reduce production. Brazilian peanut prices weakened to be more competitive in the export market.
- Global almond prices weakened in August as the harvest started in the Northern Hemisphere. With large global inventories along with harvest pressure, prices remain under downward pressure. However, poor production yields have been reported in early harvest assessments in both the US and Spain. Almond prices are expected to continue sideways with the northern hemisphere harvest coming in, however, prices could find support if reports of poor yields extend beyond early harvested nuts.
- Walnut prices ticked higher in August, with buyers showing interest in the new crop. While global walnut inventories remain ample, larger-sized nuts are in short supply, and importers are fixing contracts for the new crop, to be harvested from late September. Globally, prices could continue to find support until northern hemisphere nuts become available, after which harvest pressure could push prices down.
- The Northern Hemisphere harvest has started, with the market leader Türkiye expecting a good crop, although lower than initial forecasts. Hazelnut prices in Türkiye rose by 13% in a month due to a short-term supply shortage, the strengthening of the lira, and significant inventory held by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). Harvest pressure could result in a price drop, especially as competition from Georgian and Azerbaijani crops intensifies and European importers await the availability of Italian hazelnuts.
- Gains in the previous month have been erased this month over an extensive liquidation in the crude palm oil futures market.
- Flat olive oil prices have moved up slightly to €8.5/kg over the month, but overall, prices are expected to continue to push higher.
- A higher carryover stock and subdued market activity are keeping rapeseed prices flat.
- Currently, for sunflowers, both buyers and sellers are holding on to doing any trade until the crop is better assessed.