Tridge summary
The article provides an overview of the US beef market outlook for 2024 and 2025, highlighting expected declines in production and increases in imports due to various factors such as drought, cattle supply availability, and trade policies. For 2024, beef production is anticipated to decrease by 6% to 25.95 billion pounds, partly offset by record imports reaching 1.196 billion pounds in the first quarter. In 2025, a further 6% production decline is expected, leading to an estimated beef trade deficit. Import quotas from countries like Brazil and Australia could limit the growth in imports, while high US beef prices and competition from Oceania could impact export expansion. Additionally, the article discusses the impact of the avian influenza on beef exports to Colombia and provides an overview of the live cattle trade expectations for 2024 and 2025, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports forecasted.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.
Original content
The 2025 outlook for beef production is forecast at 25.12 billion pounds, a 6% decline from 2024. Next year will mark the third consecutive year of lower production following the record-large volume set in 2022 and will be lowest since 2015, when the sector began to rebuild following the 2009-13 drought. Cattle supplies are expected to remain tight next year as evidenced by the ratio of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix currently remaining above a year ago and the five-year average, and the number of heifers on feed on April 1 was nearly equal to last year. The relatively strong pace of beef cow slaughter, along with relatively large placements of heifers in feedlots in 2023 and into early 2024, will likely yield a smaller year-over-year calf crop in 2025, tightening future cattle supplies. Total disappearance in 2025, measured on a per capita retail weight basis, is expected to decline 5% from last year to 55.6 pounds (Figure 1). As production declines next year on the ...
Source: Progressivecattle
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